Table 1.
Demographics and baseline data for the training and validation set.
| Training set N = 2,032 |
Validation set N = 492 |
External validation set N = 1526 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | Prop | N | Prop | p-value | N | Prop | p-value | |
| Demographic Information | ||||||||
| Male | 836 | 41% | 190 | 39% | 0.31 | 919 | 59% | < 0.01 |
| Age | ||||||||
| > 89 | 144 | 7% | 42 | 9% | 0.29 | 57 | 4% | < 0.01 |
| 75–89 | 629 | 31% | 168 | 34% | 0.24 | 438 | 28% | 0.06 |
| 50–75 | 935 | 46% | 200 | 41% | 0.14 | 808 | 52% | < 0.01 |
| 25–50 | 316 | 16% | 71 | 14% | 0.43 | 211 | 14% | < 0.01 |
| < 25 | 8 | 0% | 4 | 1% | 0.27 | 12 | 1% | 0.13 |
| Ethnicity | ||||||||
| White | 1429 | 70% | 380 | 77% | 0.08 | 1246 | 79% | < 0.01 |
| African American | 244 | 12% | 52 | 11% | 0.35 | 172 | 11% | 0.35 |
| Hispanic | 75 | 4% | 22 | 4% | 0.37 | 27 | 2% | < 0.01 |
| Asian American | 74 | 4% | 15 | 3% | 0.42 | 20 | 1% | < 0.01 |
| Other | 210 | 10% | 23 | 5% | 0.05 | 54 | 3% | < 0.01 |
| Clinical Features | ||||||||
| Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding | 679 | 33% | 203 | 41% | 0.07 | 666 | 43% | < 0.01 |
| Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding | 428 | 21% | 162 | 33% | 0.02 | 448 | 29% | < 0.01 |
| Unspecified Location | 925 | 46% | 127 | 26% | < 0.01 | 412 | 27% | < 0.01 |
| Outcomes | ||||||||
| Packed Red Blood Cells | 1542 | 76% | 381 | 77% | 0.39 | 515 | 33% | < 0.01 |
| In-Hospital Mortality | 156 | 8% | 32 | 6.5% | 0.35 | 103 | 6.6% | 0.21 |
| Mean | Std Dev | Mean | Std Dev | p-value | Mean | Std Dev | p-value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vital Signs | ||||||||
| Heart Rate (beats per minute) | 88.9 | 18 | 88.1 | 16.6 | 0.35 | 86.8 | 17.8 | < 0.01 |
| Systolic Blood Pressure | 126.9 | 22.9 | 127.1 | 22.2 | 0.86 | 119 | 23.3 | < 0.01 |
| Diastolic Blood Pressure | 64.2 | 16.9 | 65.7 | 16.6 | 0.07 | 61.7 | 15.4 | < 0.01 |
| Laboratory Tests | ||||||||
| Alanine Aminotransferase (ALT) | 41 | 86.9 | 39.8 | 152 | 0.87 | 95.3 | 272.2 | < 0.01 |
| Albumin | 3.1 | 0.63 | 3.1 | 0.65 | 1.00 | 2.6 | 0.62 | < 0.01 |
| Alkaline Phosphatase | 117.2 | 152.8 | 118.4 | 130.5 | 0.86 | 136.2 | 165.2 | < 0.01 |
| Anion Gap | 15 | 4.3 | 14.8 | 4 | 0.33 | 10.6 | 5.1 | < 0.01 |
| Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST) | 75.8 | 159 | 75 | 446 | 0.97 | 146.6 | 614.3 | < 0.01 |
| Bicarbonate | 23.8 | 4.5 | 24 | 4.4 | 0.37 | 23.8 | 5.0 | 1.0 |
| Bilirubin, Total | 1.52 | 3 | 1.47 | 2.5 | 0.70 | 4.5 | 8.0 | < 0.01 |
| Calcium, Total | 8.1 | 0.88 | 8.2 | 0.8 | 0.01 | 8.1 | 0.76 | 1.0 |
| Chloride | 104.4 | 6.1 | 104.4 | 6.5 | 1.00 | 105.6 | 6.9 | < 0.01 |
| Creatinine | 1.43 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.31 | 1.7 | 1.7 | < 0.01 |
| Glucose | 147 | 77.5 | 143.8 | 60.6 | 0.32 | 128.8 | 54.1 | < 0.01 |
| Magnesium | 1.9 | 0.71 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 1.00 | 1.9 | 0.36 | 1.0 |
| Phosphate | 3.5 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.00 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Potassium | 4.3 | 0.76 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.01 | 4.0 | 0.65 | < 0.01 |
| Sodium | 138.8 | 4.6 | 138.7 | 4.8 | 0.68 | 139.2 | 5.5 | 0.02 |
| Urea Nitrogen | 37.5 | 28 | 39.5 | 30.4 | 0.18 | 32.0 | 26.6 | < 0.01 |
| Basophils | 0.39 | 0.98 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.06 | 0.39 | 0.50 | 1.0 |
| Eosinophils | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.00 | 2.1 | 2.4 | < 0.01 |
| Hematocrit | 28 | 9.5 | 27.7 | 6.5 | 0.41 | 26.5 | 4.7 | < 0.01 |
| Hemoglobin | 9.5 | 2.5 | 9.3 | 2.4 | 0.10 | 8.7 | 1.6 | < 0.01 |
| International Normalized Ratio (INR) | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.00 | 1.69 | 1.1 | 0.14 |
| Lymphocytes (%) | 17.1 | 10.2 | 16.6 | 10.1 | 0.33 | 15.2 | 10.1 | < 0.01 |
| Mean Corpuscular Hemoglobin (MCH) | 30.2 | 3 | 29.9 | 2.9 | 0.04 | 29.8 | 2.4 | < 0.01 |
| Mean Corpuscular Hemoglobin Concentration (MCHC) | 33.5 | 1.7 | 33.3 | 1.8 | 0.03 | 32.3 | 1.44 | < 0.01 |
| Mean Corpuscular Volume (MCV) | 90 | 7.6 | 89.7 | 7.3 | 0.42 | 90.5 | 6.3 | 0.04 |
| Monocytes (%) | 4.6 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.00 | 8.5 | 5.0 | < 0.01 |
| Neutrophils (%) | 75.1 | 12.3 | 76.5 | 11.7 | 0.02 | 73.3 | 12.6 | < 0.01 |
| Platelet Count (× 1000) | 231.8 | 139.3 | 238.9 | 127.4 | 0.28 | 174.5 | 103.8 | < 0.01 |
| Prothrombin Time (PT) | 17.1 | 11.4 | 19.1 | 15.7 | 0.01 | 18.8 | 10.8 | < 0.01 |
| Partial Thromboplastin Time (PTT) | 31.3 | 13.7 | 31.3 | 14.2 | 1.00 | 39.9 | 20 | < 0.01 |
| Red Blood Cell Distribution Width (RDW) | 16.1 | 2.5 | 15.9 | 2.2 | 0.08 | 17.1 | 2.8 | < 0.01 |