Table 3.

Model Fit for Confirmed and Recovered COVID-19 Cases in Ethiopia

Model Fit for COVID-19 Confirmed Cases
Fit Statistic	ARIMA (0, 1, 5)	ARIMA (1, 1, 2)	ARIMA (1, 1, 4)
RMSE	106.926	109.553	107.907
MAPE	130.722	131.369	139.204
Normalized BIC	9.501	9.513	9.543
Model Fit for COVID-19 Recovered Cases
Fit Statistic	ARIMA (3, 1, 3)	ARIMA (2, 1, 3)	ARIMA (2, 1, 4)
RMSE	64.916	64.856	64.956
MAPE	179.214	153.919	164.956
Normalized BIC	8.557	8.525	8.558

Abbreviations: RMSE, root mean square error; MAPE, mean absolute percentage error; BIC, Bayesian information criterion.