Table 4.
Parameter Estimation Using ARIMA (0, 1, 5) Model for Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Ethiopia
| ARIMA Model Parameters for New Confirmed Cases | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | SE | t | Sig. | ||
| Constant | 6.778 | 6.592 | 1.028 | 0.305 | |
| Difference | 1 | ||||
| MA | Lag 1 | 0.880 | 0.081 | 10.859 | 0.000 |
| Lag 2 | −0.343 | 0.106 | −3.243 | 0.001 | |
| Lag 3 | 0.058 | 0.109 | 0.533 | 0.595 | |
| Lag 4 | −0.161 | 0.107 | −1.500 | 0.135 | |
| Lag 5 | −0.249 | 0.084 | −2.965 | 0.003 | |
Abbreviations: MA (Lag 1), moving average order 1; MA (Lag 2), moving average order 2; MA (Lag 3), moving average order 3; MA (Lag 4), moving average order 4; MA (Lag 5), moving average order 5; SE, standard error.