Table 1.

Probabilities of Health Outcomes and Costs of Interventions

Variable	Base Case Estimate (95% CI)	Source
Probability of diagnosed glaucoma	0.5	Tielsch et al,4 Rudnicka et al5
Initial probability of having glaucoma
50–59 y	0.027–0.049	Quigley and Vitale18
Annual probability of developing glaucoma
50–59 y	0.002–0.003	Quigley and Vitale18
60–69 y	0.003–0.005	Quigley and Vitale18
70–79 y	0.005–0.006	Quigley and Vitale18
≥80 y	0.006–0.01	Quigley and Vitale18
Annual probability of progressing to visual impairment
50–59 y	0.007	Congdon et al17
60–69 y	0.01	Congdon et al17
70–79 y	0.01	Congdon et al17
≥80 y	0.01	Congdon et al17
Annual probability of progressing to blindness
50–59 y	0.35	Sommer et al6
60–69 y	0.20	Sommer et al6
70–79 y	0.02	Sommer et al6
≥80 y	0.02	Sommer et al6
Hazard ratio for progression with treatment
Development of visual impairmenta	0.65 (0.49–0.87)	Maier et al3
Development of blindnessb	0.65 (0.49–0.87)	Maier et al3
FDT screening test characteristics
Sensitivity	0.92 (0.65–0.99)	Burr et al19
Specificity	0.94 (0.73–0.97)	Burr et al19
Screening cost,$
FDT visual field testing	73 (110)c	Medicare fee schedule20
Eye examination	127 (190)c	Medicare fee schedule20

Abbreviation: FDT, frequency-doubling technology.

^aHazard ratio for patients with glaucoma and no visual impairment.

^bHazard ratio for patients with glaucoma and visual impairment.

^cFor both the cost of FDT visual field testing and the cost of an eye examination, the base case was fixed (eg, $73) and then we used a higher estimate (eg, $110) for the sensitivity analysis.