Table 1.

Summary of model parameters and the median and 95% credible interval from their fitted posterior distributions

Parameter	Description	Interpretation	Posterior median (95% credible interval)
C	Breakpoint of piecewise regression	The time at which PCR positivity peaks	3.18 days post-infection (2.01 to 5.11)
β1	Intercept of both regression curves	N/A	1.51 (0.80 to 2.31)
β2	Slope of 1st regression curve	The rate of increase in percentage of infections detected after exposure	2.19 (1.26 to 3.47)
β3	Slope of 2nd regression curve	The rate of decrease in the percentage of infections detected, after the curve peaks	− 1.1 (− 1.2 to − 1.05)