Table 1.
Results from Ordinary Least Squares regressions of the logarithm of COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country on the country’s latitude and control variables.
| Cases per million inhabitants | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
(1) Coefficient 95% CI p value |
(2) Coefficient 95% CI p value |
(3) Coefficient 95% CI p value |
(4) Coefficient 95% CI p value |
|
| Latitude |
0.071 (0.056–0.086) < 0.001 |
0.052 (0.032–0.072) < 0.001 |
0.049 (0.030–0.069) < 0.001 |
0.043 (0.019–0.067) < 0.001 |
| Air travel |
− 0.001 (− 0.060 to 0.058) 0.966 |
− 0.010 (− 0.073 to 0.0512) 0.738 |
− 0.046 (− 0.094 to 0.003) 0.065 |
|
| Vehicle concentration |
− 0.237 (− 1.576 to 1.103) 0.726 |
− 0.841 (− 2.279 to 0.597) 0.248 |
− 3.288 (− 5.472 to − 1.104) 0.004 |
|
| Urbanization |
0.032 (0.018–0.047) < 0.001 |
0.029 (0.014–0.044) < 0.001 |
0.009 (− 0.008 to 0.026) 0.277 |
|
| Testing intensity |
0.006 (− 0.002 to 0.014) |
0.002 (− 0.004 to 0.009) |
||
| Cell phone usage |
0.125 0.009 (0.000–0.017) 0.045 |
0.472 0.002 (− 0.007 to 0.011) 0.710 |
||
| Income |
1.145 (0.641–1.648) < 0.001 |
|||
| Old-age dependency ratio |
− 0.010 (− 0.065 to 0.050) 0.741 |
|||
| Health expenditure |
0.167 (0.065–0.269) 0.002 |
|||
| Constant |
6.838 (6.242–7.433) |
5.464 (4.642–6.285) |
4.866 (3.903–5.829) |
− 3.803 (− 7.394 to − 0.213) |
| P value | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | 0.038 |
| R2 | 0.428 | 0.533 | 0.561 | 0.643 |
| Adj. R2 | 0.423 | 0.516 | 0.537 | 0.614 |
| N | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 |
Column 1 contains the bivariate specification of the regression of the natual logarithm of COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants on latitude. The other columns are nested models with control variables. Models (1) through (4) are alternative specifications and the results are based on countries in which more than 100 cases were reported as of January 9, 2021. Latitude is the absolute latitude of a country in degrees; air travel refers to the number of air passengers per capita in a country; vehicle concentration is the number of registered vehicles per capita; urbanization is the percentage of the population living in cities; testing intensity is the number of tests per hundred inhabitants; cell phone usage refers to the number of cell phones per capita; income refers to the purchasing power-adjusted per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) in a country; old-age dependency ratio is the ratio of the population above the age of 65 to the working-age population; health expenditure refers to the share of GDP spent on health. Robust standard errors are used to account for heteroscedasticity. Missing values were estimated with multiple (15) imputations. CI: confidence interval.