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Bayesian inference of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test on a person with cold/flu symptoms, assuming 600 cases per 100k population. The final, posterior probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection is 10% with the pessimistic false positive rate, and 42% with the optimistic number.
| Description | Posterior | Likelihood | Prior | Marginal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline / prior | 0.006 | |||
| + Cold/flu symptoms | 0.0286 | 0.754 | 0.006 | 0.16 |
| + Positive test (P) | 0.10 | 0.653 | 0.0286 | 0.181 |
| + Positive test (O) | 0.42 | 0.653 | 0.0286 | 0.0439 |
