Table 2. Cumulative incidence of COVID-19 hospitalization per million population and percentage reduction in hospitalization rates for immunisation programs with and without relaxation of uptake and supply constraints compared to no vaccination, 2021–2022.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2021–2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence | % | Incidence | % | Incidence | % | |
| No vaccine | 12,722 | ref | 14 901 | ref | 27,622 | ref |
| Immunization program under constraints | ||||||
| Strong supply constraint | 12,819 | 0.8% | 9,436 | -36.7% | 22,053 | -20.2% |
| [11993;13001] | [-6;2] | [8732;10163] | [-41;-32] | [21733;22053] | [-21;-18] | |
| Weak supply constraint | 11,527 | -9.4% | 5,669 | -62.0% | 17,932 | -35.1% |
| [11126;12573] | [-13;-1] | [5195;8659] | [-65;-42] | [16321;18737] | [-41;-27] | |
| Uptake constraint | 10,960 | -13.9% | 5,270 | -64.6% | 16,626 | -39.8% |
| [9812;11996] | [-23;-6] | [4932;7392] | [-67;-50] | [14744;17266] | [-47;-33] | |
| Immunization program with relaxed constraints | ||||||
| Relaxed strong supply and uptake constraint | 11,630 | -8.6% | 3,181 | -78.7% | 14,811 | -46.4% |
| [11294;12444] | [-11;-2] | [1826;4297] | [-88;-71] | [13846;14894] | [-50;-44] | |
| Weak supply and uptake constraint | 9,606 | -24.5% | 1,702 | -88.6% | 11,497 | -58.4% |
| [9240;11204] | [-27;-12] | [1590;2110] | [-89;-86] | [11053;11497] | [-60;-52] | |
Based on reference scenario for disease characteristics, level of NPI response (second wave threshold), vaccine profile (protection against infections) and NPIs maintained until end of 2022. Incidence is given per million population and the % of variation is calculated in reference to the no vaccine counterfactual. For each scenario, both values for our reference scenario and range are provided. The vaccine efficacy in the reference case is assumed to be 70% ranging from 50% to 90%.