Table 1.
Results, containment, and health
| Lag length | One week | Two weeks | Three weeks | Four weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lagged dependent |
0.648** (0.071) |
0.660** (0.072) |
0.673** (0.073) |
0.681** (0.071) |
| Containment and health index |
0.072** (0.018) |
0.047* (0.018) |
0.022 (0.018) |
0.004 (0.015) |
| Observations | 2600 | 2600 | 2600 | 2600 |
| R squared | 0.996 | 0.996 | 0.996 | 0.997 |
| F statistic | 228.39 | 225.56 | 223.82 | 223.28 |
| Only data prior to turning point | ||||
| Containment and health index |
0.126** (0.032) |
0.113** (0.035) |
0.094* (0.036) |
0.089* (0.041) |
| Only data after turning point | ||||
| Containment and health index |
0.058 (0.077) |
0.016 (0.069) |
–0.028 (0.071) |
–0.153* (0.069) |
| Instrumental variables estimates | ||||
| Containment and health index |
–0.626 (0.325) |
–0.601* (0.302) |
–0.103* (0.049) |
0.071 (0.031) |
Notes: ** (**) denote significance at p < 0.001 (p < 0.05). The dependent variable is the logarithm to weekly all-cause mortality in the first half of 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. All estimates are obtained with an OLS estimator with country, year, and week fixed effects. Results denoted as ‘prior to turning point’ refer to effects in weeks prior to the week of 2020 with the highest mortality in a country; results denoted as ‘after turning point’ refer to effects in subsequent weeks.