TABLE 3.
Test Characteristics for Clinician Predicted Probability and Subsequent Development of Severe Complications of Pneumonia
| Threshold, % | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All clinicians (N = 634) | ||||
| <1 | 94.6 (81.8–99.3) | 37.5 (33.6–41.5) | 8.6 (6.1–11.7) | 99.1 (96.8–99.9) |
| <5 | 56.8 (39.5–72.9) | 75.7 (72.1–79.1) | 12.7 (8–18.7) | 96.6 (94.5–98) |
| <10 | 37.8 (22.5–55.2) | 90.1 (87.4–92.4) | 19.2 (10.9–30.1) | 95.9 (93.9–97.4) |
| <25 | 27 (13.8–44.1) | 95.8 (93.9–97.3) | 28.6 (14.6–46.3) | 95.5 (93.5–97) |
| <50 | 21.6 (9.8–38.2) | 97.5 (95.9–98.6) | 34.8 (16.4–57.3) | 95.3 (93.3–96.8) |
| <75 | 13.5 (4.5–28.8) | 98.3 (97–99.2) | 33.3 (11.8–61.6) | 94.8 (92.8–96.4) |
| Clinicians with ≤5 y of experience (n = 334; 52.7%) | ||||
| <1 | 90.9 (58.7–99.8) | 38.1 (28.5–48.6) | 14.3 (7.1–24.7) | 97.4 (86.2–99.9) |
| <5 | 45.5 (16.7–76.6) | 77.3 (67.7–85.2) | 18.5 (6.3–38.1) | 92.6 (84.6–97.2) |
| <10 | 27.3 (6.02–61) | 91.8 (84.4–96.4) | 27.3 (6.02–61) | 91.8 (84.4–96.4) |
| <25 | 9.09 (0.23–41.3) | 95.9 (89.8–98.9) | 20.0 (50.5–71.6) | 90.3 (82.9–95.2) |
| <50 | 9.09 (0.23–41.3) | 96.9 (91.2–99.4) | 25.0 (63.1–80.6) | 90.4 (83.0–95.3) |
| <75 | 0.00 (0.00–28.5) | 97.9 (92.7–99.7) | 0.00 (0.00–84.2) | 89.6 (82.2–94.7) |
| Clinicians with >5 y of experience (n = 282; 44.5%) | ||||
| <1 | 100 (79.4–100) | 35.2 (29.7–41.1) | 8 (4.64–12.7) | 100 (96.4–100) |
| <5 | 75 (47.6–92.7) | 74.3 (68.8–79.3) | 14.1 (7.51–23.4) | 98.1 (95.3–99.5) |
| <10 | 50 (24.7–75.3) | 88 (83.7–91.6) | 19 (8.6–34.1) | 96.9 (94–98.7) |
| <25 | 37.5 (15.2–64.6) | 95.4 (92.3–97.5) | 31.6 (12.6–56.6) | 96.4 (93.6–98.3) |
| <50 | 25 (7.27–52.4) | 97.9 (95.5–99.2) | 40 (12.2–73.8) | 95.9 (92.9–97.8) |
| <75 | 25 (7.27–52.4) | 98.2 (95.9–99.4) | 44.4 (13.7–78.8) | 95.9 (92.9–97.9) |
All values presented as % (95% CI).