Table 2.
Multilevel logistic regression models of factors associated with in-hospital mortality for each period.
| Variable | March-May (odds ratio, 95% CI) | June-September (odds ratio, 95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| Age band (years) | ||
| 18–39 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| 40–49 | 2.05 (1.70 to 2.47) | 4.07 (2.43 to 6.84) |
| 50–59 | 4.47 (3.79 to 5.27) | 7.43 (4.60 to 11.99) |
| 60–69 | 8.47 (7.22 to 9.95) | 11.38 (7.13 to 18.19) |
| 70–79 | 14.16 (12.07 to 16.60) | 17.60 (11.05 to 28.01) |
| ≥ 80 | 20.58 (17.55 to 24.12) | 26.24 (16.51 to 41.71) |
| Sex | ||
| Female | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Male | 1.44 (1.39 to 1.49) | 1.27 (1.17 to 1.38) |
| Deprivation quintile | ||
| 5 (least deprived) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| 4 | 1.03 (0.97 to 1.09) | 0.96 (0.83 to 1.10) |
| 3 | 1.07 (1.01 to 1.13) | 1.05 (0.92 to 1.21) |
| 2 | 1.05 (0.99 to 1.11) | 1.01 (0.88 to 1.15) |
| 1 (most deprived) | 1.05 (1.00 to 1.12) | 1.08 (0.94 to 1.23) |
| Ethnicity | ||
| White | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Bangladeshi | 1.47 (1.18 to 1.83) | 0.83 (0.47 to 1.48) |
| Indian | 1.26 (1.14 to 1.39) | 1.11 (0.86 to 1.44) |
| Pakistani | 1.24 (1.10 to 1.40) | 1.35 (1.08 to 1.69) |
| Other Asian | 1.13 (1.00 to 1.27) | 1.04 (0.73 to 1.47) |
| Black African | 0.99 (0.87 to 1.13) | 0.76 (0.45 to 1.29) |
| Black Caribbean | 1.08 (0.96 to 1.20) | 1.04 (0.69 to 1.57) |
| Other Black | 1.22 (1.02 to 1.46) | 0.55 (0.22 to 1.38) |
| Mixed | 1.30 (1.07 to 1.58) | 0.79 (0.43 to 1.45) |
| Other | 1.00 (0.90 to 1.11) | 1.09 (0.79 to 1.51) |
| Charlson Comorbidity Index items* | ||
| Peripheral vascular disease | 1.19 (1.12 to 1.28) | 1.25 (1.09 to 1.43) |
| Congestive heart failure | 1.54 (1.47 to 1.60) | 1.75 (1.59 to 1.92) |
| Acute myocardial infarction | 1.06 (1.00 to 1.11) | 1.20 (1.07 to 1.34) |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 1.09 (1.03 to 1.15) | 1.11 (0.98 to 1.25) |
| Dementia | 1.42 (1.36 to 1.48) | 1.36 (1.23 to 1.51) |
| Chronic pulmonary disease | 1.07 (1.03 to 1.11) | 1.12 (1.03 to 1.22) |
| Connective tissue disease/rheumatic disease | 1.21 (1.11 to 1.32) | 1.09 (0.89 to 1.33) |
| Peptic ulcer | 1.00 (0.83 to 1.21) | 1.43 (1.02 to 2.00) |
| Mild liver disease | 0.97 (0.88 to 1.08) | 1.24 (1.01 to 1.52) |
| Moderate or severe liver disease | 4.58 (3.92 to 5.35) | 6.22 (4.82 to 8.03) |
| Diabetes without chronic complications | 1.14 (1.10 to 1.19) | 0.95 (0.87 to 1.05) |
| Diabetes with chronic complications | 1.25 (1.14 to 1.37) | 1.09 (0.89 to 1.34) |
| Paraplegia and hemiplegia | 1.12 (1.06 to 1.18) | 1.10 (0.98 to 1.23) |
| Renal disease | 1.16 (1.14 to 1.19) | 1.14 (1.09 to 1.20) |
| Primary cancer | 1.55 (1.45 to 1.65) | 1.60 (1.39 to 1.84) |
| Metastatic carcinoma | 1.90 (1.73 to 2.08) | 3.01 (2.55 to 3.54) |
| Obesity | 1.42 (1.34 to 1.52) | 0.97 (0.83 to 1.14) |
The March-May models is based on data for 80,618 patients and the June-September model on data for 21,014 patients with no missing data. A stable odds ratio for the comorbidity HIV/AIDS could not be calculated due to small numbers.
⁎
For Charlson Comorbidity Index items the reference category is patients without the specified comorbidity. For Charlson Comorbidity Index items relating to liver disease, diabetes and cancer three mutually exclusive categories were used.