Table 3.
Multilevel logistic regression model predicting in-hospital mortality for June-September for variables modelled as linear or categorical.
| Variable | Odds ratios (95% CIs) |
|---|---|
| Sex | |
| Female | 1 (reference) |
| Male | 1.30 (1.20 to 1.41) |
| IMD score | 1.00 (1.00 to 1.00) |
| Ethnicity | |
| White | 1 (reference) |
| Bangladeshi | 0.87 (0.49 to 1.55) |
| Indian | 1.14 (0.88 to 1.48) |
| Pakistani | 1.41 (1.13 to 1.76) |
| Other Asian | 1.07 (0.75 to 1.52) |
| Black African | 0.80 (0.47 to 1.36) |
| Black Caribbean | 1.05 (0.69 to 1.59) |
| Other Black | 0.58 (0.23 to 1.48) |
| Mixed | 0.82 (0.44 to 1.50) |
| Other | 1.12 (0.81 to 1.55) |
| Charlson Comorbidity Index items* | |
| Peripheral vascular disease | 1.25 (1.09 to 1.44) |
| Congestive heart failure | 1.73 (1.58 to 1.90) |
| Acute myocardial infarction | 1.20 (1.07 to 1.34) |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 1.09 (0.97 to 1.23) |
| Dementia | 1.33 (1.20 to 1.47) |
| Chronic pulmonary disease | 1.14 (1.05 to 1.24) |
| Connective tissue disease/rheumatic disease | 1.10 (0.90 to 1.34) |
| Peptic ulcer | 1.44 (1.03 to 2.01) |
| Mild liver disease | 1.25 (1.02 to 1.53) |
| Moderate or severe liver disease | 6.36 (4.92 to 8.21) |
| Diabetes without chronic complications | 0.97 (0.88 to 1.06) |
| Diabetes with chronic complications | 1.12 (0.91 to 1.37) |
| Paraplegia and hemiplegia | 1.11 (0.99 to 1.25) |
| Renal disease | 1.13 (1.08 to 1.18) |
| Primary cancer | 1.62 (1.40 to 1.86) |
| Metastatic carcinoma | 3.03 (2.57 to 3.57) |
| Obesity | 1.00 (0.85 to 1.17) |
Models are based on data for 21,014 patients with no missing data. Age was modeled as a continuous variable using restricted cubic splines and so the model output cannot be summarised as an odds ratio; the relationship is depicted graphically in Fig. 4. A stable odds ratio for the comorbidity HIV/AIDS could not be calculated due to small numbers. Where the 95% confidence interval does not cross 1, the model outputs are marked in bold.
For Charlson Comorbidity Index items the reference category is patients without the specified comorbidity. For Charlson Comorbidity Index items relating to liver disease, diabetes and cancer three mutually exclusive categories were used. IMD = Index of Multiple Deprivation.