Figure 5.
Effect of early application of mobility restrictions. We consider the total number of deaths over a time window of 104 days from the beginning of the simulations (4 February) to the time corresponding to the relaxation of the most severe NPIs in Italy (18 May). In (a), we illustrate the interplay between the two NPI mechanisms, assuming an earlier application of mobility restrictions and activity reduction applied at the original date (5 March). We consider different combinations of levels of activity reduction and mobility restrictions, where higher levels of α or β denote less severe NPIs. The heat map codes the reduction in deaths with respect to a scenario where mobility restrictions are not applied. (b) The effect of earlier mobility restrictions at a macro-regional level, assuming a level of activity reduction as per the lockdown phase (αlow = 0.176). The inset illustrates the effect corresponding to the application of the same restrictions at the actual date (1 March).