Figure 6.

Effect of activity reduction and mobility restrictions, where higher levels of α or β denote less severe NPIs. We consider the total number of deaths over a time window of 104 days from the beginning of the simulation (4 February) to the time corresponding to the relaxation of the most severe NPIs in Italy (18 May). We investigate three different intervention scenarios. In panels (a,d), both mobility restrictions and activity reduction are applied on the actual application dates. In panels (b,e), both strategies are hypothetically implemented earlier by 15 days. In panels (c,g), mobility restrictions are further set earlier on 4 February, while keeping activity reduction applied earlier by only 15 days. In panels (a–c), the province of Sud Sardegna is shown as an example of the positive effect of early mobility restrictions. In panels (d–f), the province of Bergamo appears to be unaffected by mobility restrictions. In (g), we illustrate the classification of the provinces as affected or unaffected by mobility restrictions, considering the scenarios relative to panels (c,f).