Table 5.
Our final UWM model’s performance measures when the cutoff point for making binary classification was placed at different top percentages of patients with asthma with the largest forecasted risk.
| Top percentage of patients with asthma with the largest forecasted risk (%) | Accuracy (N=14,644), n (%) | Sensitivity (N=218), n (%) | Specificity (N=14,426), n (%) | PPVa | NPVb | ||
|
|
|
|
|
n (%) | N | n (%) | N |
| 1 | 14,410 (98.4) | 65 (29.8) | 14,345 (99.4) | 65 (44.5) | 146 | 14,345 (98.9) | 14,498 |
| 2 | 14,316 (97.8) | 91 (41.7) | 14,225 (98.6) | 91 (31.2) | 292 | 14,225 (99.1) | 14,352 |
| 3 | 14,193 (96.9) | 103 (47.3) | 14,090 (97.7) | 103 (23.5) | 439 | 14,090 (99.2) | 14,205 |
| 4 | 14,061 (96) | 110 (50.5) | 13,951 (96.7) | 110 (18.8) | 585 | 13,951 (99.2) | 14,059 |
| 5 | 13,936 (95.2) | 121 (55.5) | 13,815 (95.8) | 121 (16.5) | 732 | 13,815 (99.3) | 13,912 |
| 6 | 13,806 (94.3) | 129 (59.2) | 13,677 (94.8) | 129 (14.7) | 878 | 13,677 (99.3) | 13,766 |
| 7 | 13,667 (93.3) | 133 (61) | 13,534 (93.8) | 133 (13) | 1025 | 13,534 (99.4) | 13,619 |
| 8 | 13,529 (92.4) | 137 (62.8) | 13,392 (92.8) | 137 (11.7) | 1171 | 13,392 (99.4) | 13,473 |
| 9 | 13,411 (91.6) | 151 (69.3) | 13,260 (91.9) | 151 (11.5) | 1317 | 13,260 (99.5) | 13,327 |
| 10 | 13,268 (90.6) | 153 (70.2) | 13,115 (90.9) | 153 (10.5) | 1464 | 13,115 (99.5) | 13,180 |
| 15 | 12,576 (85.9) | 173 (79.4) | 12,403 (86) | 173 (7.9) | 2196 | 12,403 (99.6) | 12,448 |
| 20 | 11,860 (81) | 181 (83) | 11,679 (81) | 181 (6.2) | 2928 | 11,679 (99.7) | 11,716 |
| 25 | 11,147 (76.1) | 191 (87.6) | 10,956 (75.9) | 191 (5.2) | 3661 | 10,956 (99.7) | 10,983 |
aPPV: positive predictive value.
bNPV: negative predictive value.