Table 2.

Mean point estimates, based on 2000 simulated datasets generated under the ‘baseline’ scenario with n= 5000, for the proposed finite interval illness-death model with and without frailty (FI-ID^γ, FI-ID); the cure fraction illness-death model of Conlon et al.³¹ with and without a frailty (Conlon^γ, Conlon); the illness-death model with frailty (ID^γ); the cure fraction model for T₁; and a multi-state illness-death model (MSM), which aligns with the results of a univariate Cox model for acute GVHD on the 2 → 3 transition.

	Truth	FI-IDγ	FI-ID	Conlonγ	Conlon	IDγ	Cure	MSM
Non-susceptible fraction
βs,0	−0.41	−0.41	−0.31	−0.55	−0.40		0.14
βs,x	0.50	0.50	0.51	0.53	0.54		0.51
Non-susceptible: 1 → 4
log(κ14)	−8.52	−8.51	−7.06	−9.06	−7.41
log(α14)	0.34	0.33	0.14	0.38	0.18
β14,x	0.25	0.25	0.20	0.33	0.23
Susceptible: 2 → 4
log(κ24)	−5.30	−5.30	−5.17	−5.27	−5.09	−5.35
log(α24)	0.34	0.34	0.23	0.30	0.25	0.08
β24,x	0.50	0.50	0.41	0.52	0.45	−0.08		0.08
Susceptible: 2 → 3
log(κ23)	−2.16	−2.17	−2.31	−1.81	−1.77	−1.98
log(α23)	−0.69	−0.69	−0.75	−0.63	−0.64	−1.10
β23,x	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.30	0.25	−0.31	0.38	−0.26
Susceptible: 3 → 4
log(κ34)	−6.21	−6.22	−5.66	−6.20	−5.66	−7.01
log(α34)	0.26	0.26	0.15	0.26	0.15	0.37
β34,x	0.15	0.15	0.14	0.16	0.14	0.11		0.14
log-frailty variance
log(θ)	−1.71	−1.73		−2.00		−0.49

Note: See Section 5 for details.