Fig 1. Representation of model states and transitions.

Descriptions of model parameters are given in Fig 2. Individuals starting from the S (susceptible-unvaccinated) or V (susceptible-vaccinated) states move through the model to conclude in the R (recovered) or Rd (dead) states. Those in the asymptomatic, U, state all eventually recover, those in the symptomatic, D, state may either recover or die directly, or move into hospital and/or ICU before either recovery or death. Three different possible types of vaccination are shown by green arrows and bracketed variables. These are:

1. Reduction in susceptibility.
2. Reduction in becoming symptomatic.
3. Reduction in experiencing severe symptoms.

Further model details may be found in the supporting information.