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(a) First wave of infection as observed from the start of 2020. (b) Subsequent wave of infection following relaxation to limited NPIs, sufficient to reduce the basic reproductive number to approximately R = 1.8(±0.1). (c) Subsequent infection wave following complete relaxation of all NPIs leading to R = 2.3(±0.2). Uncertainty is represented by the shaded region, within which 95% of simulations are found to fall.
