Table 1.

Distribution of parameters used for simulation.

Parameters	Value	Distribution	Reference
Proportion of pre-symptomatic travellers,${\mathit{p}\mathit{r}\mathit{o}\mathit{p}}_{\mathit{e}}$	0·643	Beta distribution α = 89·06932, β = 49·45217	Empirical distribution [2]
Proportion of asymptomatic travellers,${\mathit{p}\mathit{r}\mathit{o}\mathit{p}}_{\mathit{a}}$	0·31	Beta distribution α = 51, β = 115	Empirical distribution [27]
Travel probability,$\mathit{\theta }$	0·0209	Beta distribution 95% CI: 0·0084-0·0279	Estimated by MCMC and bootstrapping
Incubation period,${\mathit{D}}_{\mathit{E}}$	5·2	Discrete log-normal (truncated 21 days) Mean: 5·2 SD: 3·91	Empirical distribution [2]
Serial interval,${\mathit{D}}_{\mathit{I}}+{\mathit{D}}_{\mathit{E}}$	7·5	Negative binomial distributionMean: 7·5 SD: 3·4	Empirical distribution [2]