Table 3.
Simulated number of cumulative cases under hypothetical global infection numbers and different inbound traveller reduction.
| Inbound traveller reduction (%) | Global daily infection |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| 10,000 | 50,000 | 100,000 | |
| 0 | 6184 (8271–11713) | 32,468 (41413–56543) | 65,266 (83828–114715) |
| 10 | 5557 (7435–10533) | 29,218 (37276–50913) | 58,758 (75496–103376) |
| 20 | 4929 (6599–9354) | 25,967 (33136–45275) | 52,243 (67151–92005) |
| 30 | 4301 (5762–8173) | 22,714 (28993–39630) | 45,723 (58792–80603) |
| 40 | 3674 (4926–6993) | 19,459 (24847–33977) | 39,196 (50419–69169) |
| 50 | 3047 (4090–5813) | 16,203 (20697–28316) | 32,662 (42033–57704) |
| 60 | 2420 (3254–4632) | 12,946 (16544–22648) | 26,123 (33634–46207) |
| 70 | 1794 (2419–3452) | 9687 (12388–16972) | 19,576 (25221–34678) |
| 80 | 1171 (1586–2273) | 6427 (8229–11289) | 13,024 (16794–23117) |
| 90 | 553 (758–1099) | 3168 (4069–5600) | 6467 (8354–11524) |
*Data are median (IQR).