Table 1.
Risks and Costs Associated with a COVID Infection
| Age Group | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-19 | 20-44 | 45-54 | 55-64 | 65-74 | 75-84 | ≥ 85 | |
| % of US population | 25% | 33% | 13% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 2% |
| OUTCOME PROBABILITIES | |||||||
| Clinical outcomes | |||||||
| Prob. of hospitalization | 1.29% | 2.27% | 4.23% | 6.17% | 13.96% | 22.34% | 60.00% |
| Probability of dying (IFR) | 0.003% | 0.020% | 0.423% | 0.500% | 2.500% | 8.500% | 28.300% |
| Outcomes for symptomatic patients | |||||||
| Proportion high-risk | 8% | 15% | 24% | 33% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
| Outpatient visit | |||||||
| - low-risk patients | 32% | 32% | 32% | 31% | 62% | 62% | 62% |
| - high-risk patients | 77% | 63% | 63% | 63% | 82% | 82% | 82% |
| COST ESTIMATES | |||||||
| Case not medically attended | |||||||
| Medical cost (all risk) | $5 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $5 |
| Lost productivity (all risk) | $260 | $260 | $260 | $260 | $520 | $520 | $520 |
| Outpatient visit | |||||||
| Low-risk medical cost | $161 | $212 | $233 | $254 | $410 | $410 | $410 |
| Low-risk lost productivity | $520 | $520 | $780 | $1,040 | $1,560 | $1,560 | $1,560 |
| High-risk medical cost | $1,098 | $1,227 | $1,234 | $1,240 | $806 | $806 | $806 |
| High-risk lost productivity | $2,080 | $1,040 | $1,560 | $2,080 | $3,640 | $3,640 | $3,640 |
| Hospitalization | |||||||
| Low-risk medical cost | $25,408 | $32,174 | $34,960 | $37,745 | $19,379 | $19,379 | $19,379 |
| Low-risk lost productivity | $4,680 | $6,240 | $6,500 | $6,760 | $6,760 | $6,760 | $6,760 |
| High-risk medical cost | $70,938 | $80,760 | $75,334 | $69,908 | $28,346 | $28,346 | $28,346 |
| High-risk lost productivity | $11,960 | $10,920 | $11,700 | $12,480 | $9,360 | $9,360 | $9,360 |
| Fatalities | |||||||
| Low-risk lost productivity | $4,680 | $6,240 | $6,500 | $6,760 | $6,760 | $6,760 | $6,760 |
| High-risk lost productivity | $11,960 | $10,920 | $11,700 | $12,480 | $9,360 | $9,360 | $9,360 |
| Value of statistical life ($, mil.) | 5.76 | 12.34 | 10.05 | 7.75 | 5.29 | 5.29 | 5.29 |
SOURCES For hospitalization risks: (Reese et al. 2020) and CDC; for IFR: (Levin et al. 2020) and CDC’s “COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios,” Scenario 5; for high- and low-risk probabilities and cost estimates: (Molinari et al. 2007) and (CEA 2019); for productivity losses: (Molinari et al. 2007) and (Barrot et al. 2020); for VSL: (Aldy and Viscusi 2008) and (CEA 2019); author’s calculations
NOTES This table presents the risks and per-person medical risks and productivity costs associated with various outcomes of the COVID-19 infection