Table 4.
Optimal lockdown duration for the U.K. variant
| Assumptions | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimal | Net savings relative to | |||
| Life is valued | Incremental cost | lockdown | no-lockdown baseline | |
| Lockdown R0 | with | of lockdown | duration | ($, billion) |
| 0.933 | VSL | $36.93 bil. | 8 weeks | $2,234.08 |
| $46.16 bil. | 8 weeks | $2,169.45 | ||
| dQALY | $36.93 bil. | 5 weeks | $477.71 | |
| $46.16 bil. | 5 weeks | $431.54 | ||
| 1.166 | VSL | $36.93 bil. | 8 weeks | $2,057.64 |
| $46.16 bil. | 8 weeks | $1,983.78 | ||
| dQALY | $36.93 bil. | 6 weeks | $411.61 | |
| $46.16 bil. | 5 weeks | $357.78 | ||
SOURCES Author’s calculations
NOTES This table presents the optimal lockdown duration as a function of the assumptions listed in the table, estimated for the U.K. variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The right-hand column presents the incremental net savings of a lockdown of optimal length calculated as its benefits minus the associated costs incurred over the lockdown duration