Table 11.
Estimated change in number of opioid prescriptions filled from prior year to current year among long-term users, 2014–2017
| Variables | (1) | (2) |
|---|---|---|
| Probability of a decrease in annual number of fills | Change in number of annual fills | |
| CDC guideline | 0.961** | − 1.974* |
| (0.420) | (1.134) | |
| State regulations | 0.085 | 0.360 |
| (0.429) | (0.921) | |
| Trend | − 0.431** | 0.772 |
| (0.176) | (0.472) | |
| Pain limited work | − 0.282 | 0.929* |
| (0.237) | (0.543) | |
| Age | 0.030 | − 0.049 |
| (0.067) | (0.139) | |
| Age squared | − 0.000 | 0.001 |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | |
| Male | − 0.395* | 0.391 |
| (0.225) | (0.441) | |
| Black | 0.132 | 0.513 |
| (0.253) | (0.548) | |
| Hispanic | − 0.159 | 1.409* |
| (0.321) | (0.823) | |
| Surgery | 0.123 | 0.774 |
| (0.286) | (0.804) | |
| Felt hopeless most/all of time | 0.483 | − 1.061 |
| (0.329) | (0.761) | |
| Dual/SSI nonelderly | 0.411 | 0.156 |
| (0.316) | (0.763) | |
| Married | 0.116 | − 0.277 |
| (0.257) | (0.549) | |
| 1–3 years college | 0.074 | 0.011 |
| (0.239) | (0.601) | |
| 4 + years college | 0.300 | − 0.593 |
| (0.309) | (0.874) | |
| Employed | 0.266 | − 1.052* |
| (0.292) | (0.630) | |
| Publicly insured, nonelderly | − 0.114 | − 0.445 |
| (0.356) | (0.787) | |
| Elderly | 0.558 | − 1.297 |
| (0.374) | (0.939) | |
| Uninsured, nonelderly | 0.461 | − 1.278 |
| (0.525) | (1.617) | |
| HMO | 0.260 | − 0.507 |
| (0.229) | (0.474) | |
| Near poor | − 0.507 | 1.542 |
| (0.435) | (1.104) | |
| Low income | − 0.192 | 0.277 |
| (0.330) | (0.745) | |
| Middle Income | − 0.903*** | 1.680** |
| (0.336) | (0.714) | |
| High Income | − 0.628* | 1.172 |
| (0.357) | (0.893) | |
| Poor mental health | − 0.301 | 0.064 |
| (0.245) | (0.548) | |
| Angina | -0.099 | − 0.856 |
| (0.429) | (1.141) | |
| Arthritis | 0.245 | 0.365 |
| (0.307) | (0.651) | |
| Asthma | − 0.222 | 0.196 |
| (0.292) | (0.624) | |
| Coronary heart disease | − 0.797** | 1.617* |
| (0.374) | (0.935) | |
| Cholesterol | − 0.052 | − 0.597 |
| (0.217) | (0.563) | |
| Diabetes | − 0.446 | 0.930 |
| (0.273) | (0.581) | |
| Emphysema | 0.082 | − 1.353 |
| (0.375) | (0.952) | |
| High blood pressure | 0.045 | − 0.369 |
| (0.279) | (0.586) | |
| Joint pain | 0.211 | − 0.509 |
| (0.287) | (0.634) | |
| Mild heart attack | 1.065*** | − 2.010*** |
| (0.358) | (0.761) | |
| Other heart attack | 0.301 | − 0.236 |
| (0.269) | (0.644) | |
| Stroke | 0.102 | − 0.825 |
| (0.303) | (0.840) | |
| Chronic bronchitis | 0.070 | 0.159 |
| (0.419) | (1.145) | |
| Smoker | − 0.366 | 1.365** |
| (0.229) | (0.595) | |
| Obesity | − 0.033 | 0.495 |
| (0.225) | (0.559) | |
| Pregnant | 0.899 | 0.893 |
| (1.430) | (1.899) | |
| Rural | 0.401 | 0.569 |
| (0.389) | (0.911) | |
| Constant | 0.407 | − 1.037 |
| (1.756) | (3.890) | |
| Observations | 735 | 735 |
| R-squared | 0.148 |
Col 1: Logit. Col 2: Linear regression. Marginal effects reported. Long-term use is more than 2 years, with chronic pain, excluding cancer. Standard errors in parentheses adjusted for complex survey design
Not shown: State fixed effects
***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.1