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. 2021 May 8;22(1):1–52. doi: 10.1007/s10754-021-09307-4

Table 5.

Multinomial logit estimate of the probability of starting opioid use

Variables Chronic pain Acute pain
Nothing used Non-opioids only New start Nothing used Non-opioids only New start
CDC guideline 0.015 − 0.008 − 0.007 0.007 − 0.005 − 0.002
(0.045) (0.046) (0.040) (0.014) (0.012) (0.009)
State regulations 0.051 − 0.002 − 0.049 − 0.002 0.018* − 0.015**
(0.036) (0.040) (0.033) (0.011) (0.010) (0.007)
Trend − 0.021 0.029 − 0.008 0.002 0.001 − 0.003
(0.020) (0.020) (0.018) (0.006) (0.005) (0.004)
Pain limited work − 0.122*** 0.016 0.106*** − 0.059*** 0.008 0.051***
(0.035) (0.030) (0.022) (0.014) (0.012) (0.006)
Age − 0.005 0.010** − 0.004 − 0.005*** 0.005*** 0.000
(0.004) (0.004) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
Age squared 0.000 − 0.000 0.000 0.000*** − 0.000*** − 0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Male 0.053*** − 0.070*** 0.016 0.082*** − 0.067*** − 0.015***
(0.020) (0.020) (0.018) (0.006) (0.006) (0.003)
Black − 0.044 0.054* − 0.009 0.069*** − 0.058*** − 0.011**
(0.032) (0.030) (0.025) (0.009) (0.008) (0.005)
Hispanic − 0.011 0.034 − 0.023 0.022*** − 0.011 − 0.011**
(0.025) (0.027) (0.024) (0.007) (0.007) (0.005)
Surgery − 0.111** − 0.220*** 0.331*** − 0.203*** 0.051*** 0.153***
(0.055) (0.060) (0.032) (0.020) (0.018) (0.006)
Felt hopeless most/all of time − 0.029 0.037 − 0.008 − 0.052** 0.072*** − 0.020*
(0.071) (0.064) (0.037) (0.021) (0.019) (0.010)
Dual/SSI nonelderly 0.126 − 0.100 − 0.025 − 0.109*** 0.096*** 0.013
(0.084) (0.072) (0.046) (0.020) (0.017) (0.010)
Married 0.001 − 0.035 0.034* 0.014** − 0.007 − 0.006
(0.022) (0.023) (0.020) (0.007) (0.007) (0.004)
1–3 years college 0.014 − 0.026 0.011 − 0.004 0.007 − 0.003
(0.028) (0.026) (0.022) (0.008) (0.007) (0.004)
4 + years college 0.032 0.005 − 0.037 − 0.005 0.018*** − 0.013**
(0.025) (0.028) (0.025) (0.008) (0.007) (0.005)
Employed 0.089*** − 0.047 − 0.041* − 0.002 − 0.013 0.015***
(0.025) (0.030) (0.024) (0.009) (0.008) (0.005)
Publicly insured, nonelderly − 0.084* 0.079** 0.005 − 0.012 0.001 0.011**
(0.044) (0.035) (0.037) (0.010) (0.009) (0.005)
Elderly 0.049 − 0.055 0.006 − 0.016 0.011 0.005
(0.044) (0.047) (0.036) (0.015) (0.014) (0.009)
Uninsured, nonelderly 0.078* − 0.022 − 0.056* 0.129*** − 0.098*** − 0.031***
(0.046) (0.047) (0.033) (0.013) (0.012) (0.007)
HMO − 0.033* 0.027 0.006 − 0.009 0.014** − 0.005
(0.020) (0.020) (0.021) (0.006) (0.005) (0.004)
Near poor − 0.077 0.069 0.008 − 0.018 0.025** − 0.007
(0.053) (0.054) (0.045) (0.013) (0.013) (0.007)
Low income − 0.043 − 0.055 0.097*** 0.007 − 0.002 − 0.005
(0.042) (0.043) (0.036) (0.011) (0.011) (0.006)
Middle income -0.047 0.018 0.029 − 0.008 0.012 − 0.004
(0.035) (0.036) (0.031) (0.011) (0.010) (0.006)
High income − 0.022 − 0.010 0.032 − 0.017 0.011 0.006
(0.037) (0.039) (0.038) (0.011) (0.011) (0.006)
Poor mental health − 0.162*** 0.115*** 0.047** − 0.127*** 0.113*** 0.015***
(0.028) (0.026) (0.024) (0.010) (0.008) (0.005)
Angina − 0.082 0.075 0.007 − 0.010 0.006 0.004
(0.065) (0.064) (0.052) (0.023) (0.018) (0.014)
Arthritis − 0.094*** 0.052** 0.042** − 0.078*** 0.049*** 0.029***
(0.025) (0.024) (0.019) (0.008) (0.007) (0.005)
Asthma − 0.075** 0.023 0.052* − 0.136*** 0.128*** 0.008
(0.030) (0.028) (0.030) (0.010) (0.008) (0.006)
Coronary heart disease − 0.011 0.063 − 0.052 0.012 − 0.011 − 0.001
(0.050) (0.045) (0.044) (0.019) (0.016) (0.010)
Cholesterol − 0.076*** 0.059** 0.017 − 0.049*** 0.044*** 0.005
(0.022) (0.025) (0.019) (0.008) (0.006) (0.005)
Diabetes 0.002 − 0.020 0.018 − 0.020** 0.019** 0.001
(0.033) (0.031) (0.024) (0.010) (0.008) (0.006)
Emphysema − 0.068 0.031 0.036 − 0.123*** 0.098*** 0.025
(0.094) (0.082) (0.047) (0.028) (0.022) (0.016)
High blood pressure − 0.024 − 0.008 0.032 − 0.036*** 0.026*** 0.009*
(0.022) (0.027) (0.023) (0.007) (0.007) (0.005)
Joint pain 0.012 − 0.007 − 0.005 − 0.041*** 0.028*** 0.014***
(0.022) (0.022) (0.020) (0.007) (0.006) (0.004)
Mild heart attack 0.040 0.008 − 0.048 0.008 − 0.004 − 0.004
(0.070) (0.068) (0.046) (0.020) (0.016) (0.012)
Other heart attack − 0.012 0.043 − 0.031 − 0.038*** 0.033*** 0.005
(0.037) (0.035) (0.027) (0.011) (0.010) (0.006)
Stroke − 0.046 0.002 0.044 − 0.032* 0.035** − 0.003
(0.054) (0.044) (0.040) (0.019) (0.015) (0.011)
Chronic bronchitis − 0.091 0.094 − 0.003 − 0.075*** 0.071*** 0.004
(0.112) (0.105) (0.047) (0.029) (0.021) (0.014)
Smoker − 0.140*** 0.085** 0.055** − 0.026*** 0.005 0.021***
(0.031) (0.034) (0.024) (0.008) (0.008) (0.004)
Obesity − 0.076*** 0.044* 0.032 − 0.037*** 0.027*** 0.010***
(0.021) (0.023) (0.020) (0.007) (0.006) (0.004)
Pregnant − 0.092 0.067 0.024 − 0.023 − 0.010 0.033***
(0.071) (0.094) (0.067) (0.018) (0.017) (0.008)
Rural 0.062 − 0.009 − 0.053 − 0.001 0.011 − 0.010
(0.047) (0.057) (0.037) (0.013) (0.012) (0.007)
Constant 0.015 − 0.008 − 0.007 0.007 − 0.005 − 0.002
(0.045) (0.046) (0.040) (0.014) (0.012) (0.009)
Observations 3245 3245 3245 35,437 35,437 35,437

Marginal effects reported. Standard errors in parentheses adjusted for complex survey design

Not shown: State fixed effects

***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.1