Table 1.
Estimated transition probability of clinical management model in Italy-Lombardy.
| Date | Susceptible → Quarantine in Hospital (PSQ2) | Quarantine in Hospital → Recovery (PQ2R) | Quarantine in Hospital → ICU (PQ2I) | ICU → Death (PID) | TIR for hospitalization ( | TIR for ICU ( | Predicted number of beds needed (per week) | Predicted number of ICU beds needed (per week) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period I (3 Mar.-30 Jun. 2020) | ||||||||
| 3-7 Mar. | 14.7% (12.6%,16.8%) | 6.7% (6.1%,7.4%) | 3.4% (2.2%,4.7%) | 9.4% (7.7%,11.4%) | 2.2 (1.9,2.6) | 2.9 (1.9,4.3) | 2289 (2251,2302) | 469 (442,498) |
| 8-14 Mar. | 20.2% (18.9%,21.5%) | 4.1% (3.9%,4.3%) | 4.1% (3.5%,4.6%) | 19.9% (18.6%,21.2%) | 5.0 (4.6,5.4) | 4.9 (4.4,5.6) | 4715 (4674,4755) | 887 (857,916) |
| 15-21 Mar. | 19.9% (19.0%,20.8%) | 4.2% (4.1%,4.3%) | 4.1% (3.8%,4.4%) | 28.0% (27.0%,28.9%) | 4.8 (4.5,5.0) | 6.8 (6.4,7.3) | 8072 (8024,8120) | 1717 (1680,1754) |
| 22-28 Mar. | 20.2% (19.4%,21.1%) | 3.6% (3.5%,3.6%) | 4.0% (3.8%,4.2%) | 30.4% (29.7%,31.2%) | 5.7 (5.4,5.9) | 7.6 (7.2,8.0) | 11939 (11875,12008) | 2330 (2291,2370) |
| 29 Mar.-4 Apr. | 19.4% (18.7%,20.0%) | 3.2% (3.2%,3.3%) | 3.9% (3.7%,4.0%) | 30.3% (29.7%,30.9%) | 6.0 (5.8,6.2) | 7.9 (7.5,8.2) | 12275 (12230,12325) | 2375 (2345,2406) |
| 5-11 Apr. | 17.0% (16.5%,17.6%) | 2.9% (2.8%,2.9%) | 3.7% (3.6%,3.9%) | 28.5% (28.0%,29.1%) | 5.9 (5.7,6.1) | 7.6 (7.4,7.9) | 12688 (12640,12737) | 2050 (2027,2075) |
| 12-18 Apr. | 14.2% (13.9%,14.6%) | 2.5% (2.4%,2.5%) | 3.6% (3.5%,3.7%) | 27.7% (27.2%,28.1%) | 5.8 (5.6,6.0) | 7.8 (7.5,8.0) | 11529 (11487,11573) | 1651 (1634,1667) |
| 19-25 Apr. | 12.3% (12.0%,12.6%) | 2.4% (2.4%,2.5%) | 3.5% (3.4%,3.6%) | 27.3% (26.9%,27.7%) | 5.0 (4.9,5.2) | 7.9 (7.6,8.1) | 9695 (9660,9730) | 1287 (1274,1299) |
| 26 Apr.-2 May | 10.6% (10.4%,10.8%) | 2.2% (2.2%,2.2%) | 3.5% (3.4%,3.5%) | 27.1% (26.7%,27.5%) | 4.8 (4.7,5.0) | 7.8 (7.6,8.1) | 7705 (7674,7738) | 952 (944,961) |
| 3-9 May | 9.7% (9.5%,9.9%) | 2.5% (2.5%,2.5%) | 3.4% (3.3%,3.5%) | 27.0% (26.6%,27.4%) | 3.9 (3.8,4.0) | 8.0 (7.7,8.2) | 6435 (6413,6458) | 734 (727,741) |
| 10-16 May | 8.6% (8.5%,8.8%) | 2.5% (2.5%,2.5%) | 3.3% (3.3%,3.4%) | 27.1% (26.7%,27.5%) | 3.4 (3.4,3.5) | 8.1 (7.9,8.3) | 5478 (5458,5499) | 553 (548,559) |
| 17-23 May | 7.8% (7.6%,7.9%) | 2.5% (2.5%,2.5%) | 3.3% (3.2%,3.4%) | 27.2% (26.9%,27.6%) | 3.1 (3.1,3.2) | 8.3 (8.0,8.5) | 5271 (5247,5296) | 445 (440,449) |
| 24-30 May | 7.3% (7.2%,7.4%) | 2.6% (2.6%,2.6%) | 3.3% (3.2%,3.3%) | 27.2% (26.8%,27.6%) | 2.8 (2.8,2.9) | 8.4 (8.2,8.6) | 4369 (4352,4385) | 380 (376,384) |
| 31 May-6 Jun. | 6.9% (6.8%,7.0%) | 2.6% (2.6%,2.6%) | 3.2% (3.2%,3.3%) | 27.2% (26.8%,27.5%) | 2.7 (2.6,2.7) | 8.5 (8.3,8.7) | 4122 (4102,4142) | 292 (289,295) |
| 7-13 Jun. | 6.6% (6.5%,6.7%) | 2.6% (2.6%,2.6%) | 3.2% (3.1%,3.2%) | 27.2% (26.9%,27.6%) | 2.5 (2.5,2.6) | 8.6 (8.4,8.8) | 3195 (3181,3209) | 233 (230,235) |
| 14-20 Jun. | 6.2% (6.1%,6.3%) | 2.7% (2.7%,2.7%) | 3.2% (3.1%,3.2%) | 27.3% (26.9%,27.6%) | 2.3 (2.3,2.4) | 8.6 (8.5,8.9) | 2098 (2089,2108) | 149 (147,150) |
| 21-30 Jun. | 5.5% (5.5%,5.6%) | 2.8% (2.8%,2.8%) | 3.2% (3.1%,3.2%) | 27.3% (26.9%,27.6%) | 2.0 (2.0,2.0) | 8.6 (8.4,8.8) | 521 (517,525) | 41 (41,41) |
| Period II (1 Jul.-30 Sep. 2020) | ||||||||
| 1 Jul.-30 Sep. | 0.1% (0.1%,0.1%) | 2.6% (2.6%,2.6%) | 3.2% (3.1%,3.2%) | 27.0% (26.6%,27.3%) | 0.04 (0.03,0.04) | 8.5 (8.3,8.7) | 24 (23,25) | 4 (4,4) |
| Period III (1 Oct.-8 Dec. 2020) | ||||||||
| 1 Oct.-8 Dec. | 0.7% (0.7%,0.8%) | 3.4% (3.3%,3.4%) | 3.1% (3.0%,3.1%) | 24.7% (24.4%,25.0%) | 0.22 (0.21,0.23) | 8.1 (7.9,8.3) | 617 (616,618) | 106 (105,106) |