Table 5.
Scenario analysis results averaged across 3 years
| Parameter | Base case setting | Scenario analysis setting | Budget impact PMPM, $ | Number of HF hospitalizations avoided a | Number of CV deaths avoideda |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | 0.066 | 35 | 12 | ||
| Daily drug acquisition cost of both vericiguat and sacubitril/valsartan | $19.43 | 10% discount ($17.49) | 0.058 | 35 | 12 |
| 20% discount ($15.54) | 0.051 | 35 | 12 | ||
| 25% discount ($14.57) | 0.047 | 35 | 12 | ||
| HF hospitalization costs per event | $23,605 | 15% increase ($27,146) | 0.065 | 35 | 12 |
| 15% decrease ($20,064) | 0.067 | 35 | 12 | ||
| Routine care cost per month alive | $307 | 15% increase ($353) | 0.066 | 35 | 12 |
| 15% decrease ($261) | 0.066 | 35 | 12 | ||
| Terminal care cost per mortality event | $31,779 | 15% increase ($36,546) | 0.065 | 35 | 12 |
| 15% decrease ($27,012) | 0.066 | 35 | 12 | ||
| Projected utilization rate of vericiguat | 5%, 10%, 15% over years 1 to 3 | 10%, 20%, 30% | 0.132 | 71 | 25 |
| 2.5%, 5%, 7.5% | 0.033 | 17 | 6 |
CV cardiovascular, HF heart failure, PMPM per member per month
aThe number of events avoided were rounded down to be conservative