Table 3: Spatial Durbin Model for the Case Fatality Rates as of February 27, 2021 Using NYT¹, AHRF²⁴, and CHRF²⁶ Datasets.

Ecological Factors	Spatial Durbin Model		Decomposition Estimates
	Estimate	Lag Estimate	Direct	Indirect	Total
COVID-19 Policy-related Factors
Calendar Month of the First Reported Case in the State [n, %]*
January	Reference
February	-0.253	-0.288	-0.253	-0.673	-0.927
March	-0.375	0.380	-0.345	0.333	-0.011
April	-0.407	0.231	-0.396	0.048	-0.348
May	-0.368	0.026	-0.378	-0.257	-0.635
June to December	-0.586	0.845	-0.521	0.955	0.434
% Positive for COVID-19	0.059 ***	-0.048 ***	0.057 ***	-0.035 **	0.022 **
Social Distance Score	0.062	-0.136 *	0.056	-0.185	-0.129
Stringency Index	0.015 **	-0.017 **	0.014 **	-0.017 **	-0.003
Health Behaviors
Food Insecurity	0.000	0.086	0.011	0.148 *	0.160 *
Chlamydia Rate (log)	-0.034	0.173	-0.024	0.260	0.236
% Physical Inactivity	0.002	-0.009	0.002	-0.013	-0.011
% Excessive Drinking	-0.002	0.025	0.000	0.043	0.043*
% Adult Obesity	-0.009 *	-0.026 *	-0.013 **	-0.054 ***	-0.066 ***
Clinical Burden
% Low Birthweight	-0.022	0.002	-0.023	-0.008	-0.031
% Diabetic	0.008	0.022	0.011 *	0.044 *	0.055 *
Premature Age Adjusted Mortality (log)	0.711 ***	-0.469 *	0.702 ***	-0.234	0.467
Clinical Care
Primary Care Physicians Rate (log)	-0.003	-0.005	-0.003	-0.009	-0.011
Preventable Hospitalization Rate	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Hospital Beds (log)	0.003	0.001	0.003	0.003	0.006
Nursing Home Beds	-0.005 *	-0.001	-0.005 *	-0.006	-0.011
Long-term Care Beds (log)	0.008 *	0.025 ***	0.010 **	0.048 ***	0.058 ***
Mental Health Provider Rate (log)	-0.001	-0.080 ***	-0.010	-0.136 ***	-0.146 ***
% With Annual Mammogram	-0.001	-0.003	-0.001	-0.004	-0.005
% Influenza Vaccinations^	-0.004	0.003	-0.004	0.002	-0.002
Socio-economic Factors
% of Workforce in Education/Health-care/Social Assistance Field	0.006	0.018 *	0.009	0.036 **	0.045 **
% of Workforce in Construction	-0.019 *	-0.027	-0.024 **	-0.063 *	-0.086 **
% of Workforce in Manufacturing	0.001	0.006	0.002	0.011	0.012
Income Inequality Ratio	0.076 *	-0.063	0.078 **	-0.056	0.022
% Adults with Some College Education	-0.004	-0.001	-0.004 **	-0.005 *	-0.009 **
% Unemployment	0.039	0.040	0.045	0.096	0.141
% Children in Single-parent Households	0.003	0.004	0.003	0.008	0.011
Social Association Rate (log)	0.011	0.038 **	0.014 **	0.073 **	0.087 **
% Uninsured Adults	0.014	0.001	0.015	0.014	0.028 *
% 65 Years Old and Over	0.055 ***	-0.009	0.055 ***	0.024	0.079 **
% Less Than 18 Years of Age	0.016	0.020	0.018	0.044
% African American	0.006	0.002	0.007 *	0.009	0.016 *
% Native Americans	-0.007	0.000	-0.007	-0.006	-0.013
% Hispanic	-0.003	0.008	-0.002	0.011 *	0.009
% Female	0.018	-0.057 **	0.013	-0.081*	-0.068
Residential Segregation Non-White/White	0.001	0.007 *	0.002	0.013 **	0.015 **
Physical Environment
Air Pollution-particulate Matter (2.5)	0.012	-0.035	0.009	-0.050	-0.041
% Severe Housing Problem	-0.023 ***	0.005	-0.024 ***	-0.009	-0.033
% Rural	-0.001	0.005 *	0.000	0.008 **	0.007 *
% Homeownership	0.004	-0.005	0.004	-0.006	-0.003
% Public Transportation	0.001	0.000	0.001	-0.001	0.000
Rho^	0.447***

Abbreviations: AHRF, Area Health Resource Files; NYT, New York Times; CHR: County Health Rankings.

Level of significance: *P-value<0.05, **P-value<0.01, ***P-value<0.001.

^ spatial lag parameter