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. 2021 May 11;11:9983. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-89016-7

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Prediction of bladder cancer patient five-year survival rate. Ancer pipeline analysis improves prediction of five-year survival compared to TMB- or NetMHCpan-based predictors. BLCA patients were predicted to survive more or less than five years based on their mutational or neoepitope burdens. Predicted survival status was compared to observed overall survival. (a) Accuracy of the five-year survival predictions. *p-value < 0.05, McNemar's test. (b) Positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) obtained for the TMB, NetMHCpan, and Ancer predictors. (c) PPVs and NPVs obtained using truncated and full versions of the Ancer pipeline. The increased NPV as compared to NetMHCpan and TMB suggests that an analysis that identifies tolerated or tolerogenic epitopes (Ancer) may be better suited to identify patients at a greater risk of earlier mortality (~ 9 out of 10 correct predictions) than the other types of analyses.