Table 1.

Results of vector autoregression analysis on the number of confirmed case reports, symptom onsets, nighttime population volume, and R_t per week.^a

Variable	Lag	Rt b			Nighttime population volume			Symptom onsets		Confirmed case reports
		Coefficient (95% CI)	P value	Coefficient (95% CI)		P value	Coefficient (95% CI)		P value		Coefficient (95% CI)	P value
Rt	1	–1.00 (–1.41 to –0.59)c	<.001	0.04 (–0.11 to 0.20)		.58	0.30 (0.06 to 0.55)c		.02		–0.03 (–0.22 to 0.17)	.80
	2	–0.17 (–0.76 to 0.42)	.58	–0.16 (–0.39 to 0.06)		.15	0.22 (–0.14 to 0.58)		.22		–0.24 (–0.52 to 0.05)	.10
	3	0.02 (–0.51 to 0.56)	.93	–0.71 (–0.91 to 0.50)*		<.001	0.12 (–0.20 to 0.44)		.48		–0.14 (–0.40 to 0.11)	.28
	4	–0.12 (–0.46 to 0.22)	.50	–0.38 (–0.51 to –0.25)c		<.001	0.07 (–0.13 to 0.28)		.48		0.08 (–0.09 to 0.24)	.36
Nighttime population volume	1	0.42 (–0.11 to 0.95)	.12	–0.25 (–0.45 to –0.05)c		.01	0.60 (0.28 to 0.92)c		<.001		–0.05 (–0.31 to 0.20)	.69
	2	0.41 (–0.14 to 0.95)	.14	0.29 (0.08 to 0.49)c		.006	–0.17 (–0.50 to 0.16)		.30		–0.26 (–0.52 to –0.001)c	.05
	3	1.30 (0.72 to 1.89)c	<.001	–0.52 (–0.74 to –0.29)c		<.001	0.63 (0.28 to 0.99)c		<.001		–0.33 (–0.61 to –0.05)c	.02
	4	0.59 (0.04 to 1.14)c	.03	–0.03 (–0.24 to 0.18)		.77	0.59 (0.26 to 0.92)c		<.001		0.07 (–0.20 to 0.33)	.62
Symptom onset	1	–0.57 (–1.25 to 0.11)	.10	0.02 (–0.24 to 0.27)		.90	0.35 (–0.06 to 0.76)		.09		1.40 (1.07 to 1.72)c	<.001
	2	–1.50 (–2.69 to –0.32)c	.01	1.05 (0.61 to 1.50)c		<.001	–0.47 (–1.19 to 0.25)		.20		0.15 (–0.42 to 0.71)	.62
	3	1.42 (0.50 to 2.35)c	.002	–0.10 (–0.45 to 0.25)		.59	0.12 (–0.44 to 0.68)		.68		–0.35 (–0.79 to 0.09)	.12
	4	–0.58 (–1.33 to 0.18)	.13	0.38 (0.10 to 0.67)c		.008	0.24 (–0.22 to 0.70)		.31		0.45 (0.09 to 0.81)c	.02
Confirmed case reports	1	0.14 (–0.62 to 0.91)	.72	–0.44 (–0.73 to –0.15)c		.003	0.06 (–0.40 to 0.53)		.79		–0.37 (–0.74 to –0.003)c	.048
	2	–0.20 (–0.80 to 0.39)	.50	–0.29 (–0.52 to –0.07)c		.01	0.25 (–0.11 to 0.61)		.17		0.02 (–0.27 to 0.30)	.91
	3	–0.22 (–0.70 to 0.26)	.36	–0.65 (–0.84 to –0.47)c		<.001	–0.22 (–0.51 to 0.07)		.14		–0.07 (–0.30 to 0.16)	.55
	4	0.51 (0.18 to 0.84)c	.002	–0.31 (–0.44 to –0.19)c		<.001	0.07 (–0.12 to 0.27)		.46		–0.18 (–0.34 to –0.02)c	.02
Social measures in restaurants and bars (August 3 to September 15, 2020)	N/Ad	–0.07 (–0.27 to 0.14)	.52	0.004 (–0.07 to 0.08)		.91	–0.07 (–0.20 to 0.05)		.25		–0.02 (–0.11 to 0.08)	.72
First-wave countermeasures (April 7 to May 24, 2020)	N/A	0.04 (–0.29 to 0.38)	.82	0.18 (0.05 to 0.30)c		.006	–0.03 (–0.24 to 0.17)		.74		–0.05 (–0.21 to 0.11)	.56

^aThe number of optimal lags was determined by information criteria, including the Akaike information criterion, Hannan–Quinn information criterion, Schiwarz-Bayesian information criteria, and final prediction error.

^bR_t: effective reproduction number.

^cSignificant at P<.05.

^dN/A: not applicable.