Table 1.
Social-human incidence of COVID-19 and number of epidemics in the past.
| Dependent variable: COVID-19 deaths per million, period after death 10 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 1 month | 1 month | 3 month | 3 month | 3 month | end-2020 | end-2020 | end-2020 | |
| [1] | [2] | [3] | [4] | [5] | [6] | [7] | [8] | [9] | |
| # epidemics | −0.305*** | −0.285*** | −0.249*** | −0.235*** | −0.167* | −0.169* | −0.257*** | −0.195** | −0.180*** |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.008) | (0.004) | (0.097) | (0.081) | (0.000) | (0.014) | (0.008) | |
| Spatial lag | 0.195* | 0.199* | 0.173 | 0.265** | 0.356*** | 0.306*** | 0.306*** | 0.372*** | 0.312*** |
| (0.083) | (0.067) | (0.134) | (0.019) | (0.002) | (0.007) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
| NPIs index | −0.024 | 0.189*** | 0.177*** | 0.283*** | 0.311*** | ||||
| (0.661) | (0.002) | (0.006) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |||||
| Urban | −0.020 | 0.033 | 0.067 | 0.082 | 0.135* | ||||
| (0.835) | (0.748) | (0.518) | (0.282) | (0.061) | |||||
| Temperature | 0.098 | −0.063 | −0.112 | 0.103 | −0.092 | ||||
| (0.298) | (0.535) | (0.252) | (0.129) | (0.183) | |||||
| Household size | 0.129 | 0.213* | 0.163 | 0.119 | 0.133* | ||||
| (0.227) | (0.062) | (0.148) | (0.184) | (0.086) | |||||
| GNI per capita | 0.252* | 0.209 | 0.135 | 0.129 | 0.013 | ||||
| (0.074) | (0.166) | (0.373) | (0.278) | (0.905) | |||||
| Africa | 0.704*** | 0.676*** | 0.476* | 0.096 | −0.112 | 0.001 | −0.125 | −0.325 | −0.099 |
| (0.003) | (0.007) | (0.072) | (0.725) | (0.695) | (0.996) | (0.526) | (0.140) | (0.628) | |
| Oceania | −0.616 | −0.637 | −0.762 | −1.076** | −1.338*** | −1.202** | −0.831** | −1.422*** | −0.811** |
| (0.183) | (0.164) | (0.102) | (0.031) | (0.007) | (0.012) | (0.017) | (0.000) | (0.016) | |
| North America | 1.096*** | 1.035*** | 0.700 | 1.389*** | 1.139** | 1.177** | 0.845*** | 0.909** | 0.923** |
| (0.006) | (0.009) | (0.164) | (0.001) | (0.035) | (0.023) | (0.005) | (0.036) | (0.011) | |
| Central-South | 0.851*** | 0.897*** | 0.643** | 0.655** | 0.532* | 0.575* | 0.456** | 0.501** | 0.557** |
| America | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.031) | (0.020) | (0.097) | (0.066) | (0.021) | (0.046) | (0.011) |
| Asia | 0.254 | 0.236 | −0.063 | −0.121 | −0.413 | −0.379 | −0.066 | −0.146 | −0.058 |
| (0.293) | (0.341) | (0.823) | (0.652) | (0.170) | (0.201) | (0.727) | (0.535) | (0.781) | |
| Europe | 0.979*** | 0.945*** | 0.952*** | 0.582*** | 0.460* | 0.424* | 0.688*** | 0.649*** | 0.751*** |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.052) | (0.061) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.000) | |
| EME | −0.618*** | −0.690*** | −0.506** | −0.342 | −0.191 | −0.323 | −0.135 | −0.191 | −0.263 |
| (0.002) | (0.001) | (0.037) | (0.137) | (0.463) | (0.213) | (0.403) | (0.343) | (0.149) | |
| Large country | −0.322*** | −0.254** | −0.178 | −0.052 | 0.090 | 0.114 | −0.013 | 0.168 | 0.029 |
| (0.008) | (0.041) | (0.175) | (0.697) | (0.524) | (0.409) | (0.893) | (0.131) | (0.765) | |
| Observations | 150 | 143 | 126 | 143 | 126 | 123 | 143 | 132 | 123 |
| R-squared | 0.573 | 0.584 | 0.607 | 0.509 | 0.506 | 0.558 | 0.723 | 0.700 | 0.773 |
Notes: () [] denotes statistical significance at 10% (5%) [1%]. Robust p-values in parentheses. Spatial regressions based on contiguity. All non-dummy variables are in logs and standardized. See main text of the paper for the definition of the variables.