Table 3.

Economic incidence of COVID-19 and number of epidemics in the past.

	IMF first revision	IMF first revision	IMF first revision	IMF 1-year revision	IMF 1-year revision	IMF 1-year revision	GDP 2020 vs. 2019	GDP 2020 vs. 2019	GDP 2020 vs. 2019
	[1]	[2]	[3]	[4]	[5]	[6]	[7]	[8]	[9]
# epidemics	0.173**	0.159**	0.007	0.113	0.096	−0.057	0.174**	0.130*	−0.020
	(0.019)	(0.028)	(0.945)	(0.171)	(0.245)	(0.575)	(0.015)	(0.058)	(0.813)
Spatial lag	0.060	0.002	−0.062	0.058	0.059	−0.099	0.060	0.106	−0.012
	(0.666)	(0.986)	(0.666)	(0.700)	(0.683)	(0.533)	(0.683)	(0.453)	(0.937)
NPIs index		−0.100*	−0.112*		−0.257***	−0.259***		−0.179***	−0.186***
		(0.084)	(0.080)		(0.000)	(0.000)		(0.001)	(0.001)
Urban			−0.078			−0.119			−0.054
			(0.457)			(0.266)			(0.557)
Temperature			0.039			−0.067			−0.056
			(0.688)			(0.514)			(0.550)
Household size			0.026			−0.215*			0.060
			(0.808)			(0.066)			(0.546)
GNI per capita			−0.151			−0.241			−0.211
			(0.312)			(0.127)			(0.111)
Tourism share			−0.159**			−0.275***			−0.231***
			(0.031)			(0.000)			(0.000)
Additional controls	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	161	138	118	162	140	119	161	137	117
R-squared	0.432	0.502	0.550	0.183	0.235	0.359	0.293	0.307	0.425

Notes:$\ast$ ($\ast$$\ast$) [$\ast$$\ast$$\ast$] denotes statistical significance at 10% (5%) [1%]. Robust p-values in parentheses. Spatial regressions based on contiguity. Regressands standardized; regressors in logs and standardized. Additional control variables: Continent; EME; “Large country”. For details on controls and other variables see footnote to Table 1.