Table 5.

The $95\%$ confidence interval for elimination time $\tilde{T}$, the conditional expectation of the elimination time $\tilde{T}$, the expected elimination date and the conditional expectation of the epidemic size $N_t$ given $\tilde{T}⩽t$ with $t=\mathbb{E}\left[\tilde{T}\right|{\mathcal{F}}_{\widehat{\ell }}]$ under the calibrated parameters $(\widehat{\alpha },\widehat{\beta },\widehat{\delta },\widehat{\varrho },\widehat{\ell })$ for these regions and countries suggested in Table 3.

Regions	$\mathbb{P}(\tilde{T}\in (t_1,t_2\left)\right|{\mathcal{F}}_{\widehat{\ell }})=95\%$	$\mathbb{E}\left[\tilde{T}\right|{\mathcal{F}}_{\widehat{\ell }}]$	${\mathit{Date}}_E$	$\mathbb{E}\left[N_t\right|{\mathcal{F}}_{\widehat{\ell }}\cap \{\tilde{T}⩽t\}]$
Australia	$(47,97)$	66	2020-05-30	7059.46
Austria	$(69,122)$	89	2020-06-21	15610.22
China (Mainland)	$(87,142)$	108	2020-05-22	69675.10
Czechia	$(111,216)$	150	2020-08-25	8932.448
France	$(166,272)$	206	2020-10-23	154112.00
Germany	$(175,285)$	216	2020-10-28	189116.50
Greece	$(59,127)$	85	2020-06-24	2650.07
Hong Kong	$(23,54)$	35	2020-05-05	945.81
Iceland	$(28,61)$	41	2020-05-11	1787.79
Italy	$(264,445)$	329	2021-02-13	276480.1
Latvia	$(40,102)$	64	2020-05-31	764.80
New York	$(149,261)$	192	2020-10-10	209311.80
New Zealand	$(49,107)$	71	2020-06-04	1249.77
Norway	$(83,162)$	113	2020-07-15	8024.73
Switzerland	$(121,203)$	152	2020-08-22	33414.19