Table 1.
Probabilities in model
| Variable | Baseline | Range |
|---|---|---|
| Incidence rate in general population (per 100,000 patient years) | 12,000 | 6,000–36,000 |
| Dialysis/wait list patients | 2-fold | (2–4)a |
| Transplant recipients | 2-fold | (2–4) |
| Nosocomial risk (duration of exposure in hospital 21 days with a range of 14–30 days) | 4-fold | (2–10) |
| Case fatality rate - (age dependent [see text]) | ||
| Nosocomial acquired infection | Age dependent | (0.05–0.55) |
| Community acquired infection | Age dependent | (0.03–0.35) |
| In sensitivity analysis ∗ community acquired infection | 1-fold | (1–2) |
| Graft loss with COVID 19 infection | 0.06 | (0.03–0.10) |
| False negative (%) | 38 | (18–65) |
| Window period (days) | 14 | (7–21) |
| Duration of pandemic | 2 years | (1–3) |
a
A 4-fold increase with upper general population infection incident rate would result in >100% population. Rates were capped at 72,000 per 100,000 patient years.