Table 2. Characteristics of included studies.
| Study; year; country of sample | N5 | Age range/mean age in years at baseline | Interval/number of follow-ups | Diagnostic Instrument for Depression Incidence | Criteria for “incident depression” | Incident rate per 1000 person years (95% CI) or cumulative incidence | Incident cases | Depression in the past excluded (assessment of depression in the past) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibadan Study of Ageing; 2011; Nigeria [18] |
892 | 65+ | 3.25/1 | WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview version 3 (CIDI.3) (DSM-IV) (by trained interviewers) | DSM-IV criteria for Major Depressive Disorder | 104.3/1000 years at risk 34.5% of non-depressed at baseline |
308 | Yes |
| Ibadan Study of Ageing; 2018; Nigeria [19] | 1394 | 65+ | At 3, 4, 5 years | WHO Composite Diagnostic Interview (CIDI.3) (DSM-IV) (by trained interviewers) | DSM-IV criteria for Major Depressive Disorder | 120.9/1000 person years at risk | 464 | Yes |
| Aichi Gerontological Evaluation Study (AGES) project; 2019; Japan [20] | 3464 | 65+ | 4/1 | GDS-15 | GDS-15 score > = 5 | 14% of non-depressed at baseline | 490 | No |
| The Tsurugaya Project; 2005; Japan; [21] | 475 | 70+ | 1/1 | GDS-30 | GDS-30 Score > = 11 or antidepressant users | 11.6% of non-depressed participants at bl | 55 | No |
| The JAGES prospective cohort study; 2016; Japan [22] | 10458 | 65+ | 3/1 | GDS-15 | GDS-15-score > = 5 | 13.9% of non-depressed at bl | 1.435 (1.403–1.458) | no |
| Obu Study of Health Promotion in the elderly; 2018; Japan [23] | 3106 | 65+/71.5 | 1.25/1 | GDS-15 | GDS-15-score > = 6 | 7.7% of non-depressed participants | 239 | Yes (interview) |
| Obu study of Health Promotion for the Elderly; 2015; Japan [24] | 3025 | 65+/ 71.4 | 1,25/1 | GDS-15 | GDS-15-score > = 6 | 7.5% of non-depressed participants | 226 | Yes (Interview) |
| Obu study of Health Promotion for the Elderly; 2016; Japan [25] | 3066 | 65+ | 1,25/1 | GDS-15 | GDS-15-score > = 6 | 7.6% of non-depressed participants at baseline | 232 | Yes (Interview) |
| Survey of Health and Living Status of the Elderly in Taiwan; 2010; Taiwan [26] | 1487 | 65+/ 72.8 | 4/1 | CES-D-10 | CES-D-10-score> = 10 | 19.7% of non-depressed at baseline | 293 | No |
| Yang et al.; 2015; Taiwan [27] | 1467 | 65+ | 4/1 | CES-D-10 | CES-D-10-score > = 10 | 14.6% of non-depressed participants at baseline | 215 | No |
| Kim et al 2006; South Korea [28] | 521 | 65+ | 2,4/1 | GMS-AGECAT | GMS-AGECAT confidence level > = 3 | 12.1% of non-depressed participants | 63 | No information |
| Lyness et al.; 2009; USA [29] | 405 | 65+ | 1/4 | SCID (DSM-IV) | DSM-IV criteria for episode of major depression | 5.3% major depression of non-depressed at baseline | 33 | No |
| Health and Retirement Study; 2019; USA [30] | 4914 | 75+ | 8/1 | CES-D-8 | CES-D-8 score > = 4 | - | - | no |
| The Vienna Transdanube Aging study (VITA); 2009; Austria [31] | 331 | 77–78 | 2,5/1 | HAM-D GDS-short version DSM-IV |
DSM-IV criteria for depressive episode | 31% including MDD, subsyndromal and minor depression | 86 including MDD, subsyndromal and minor depression | Yes |
| ESPRIT study of neuropsychiatric disorders in French elderly; 2010; France [32] | 1131 | 65+ | At 2, 4, 7 years | CES-D-20 MINI (DSM-IV) |
DSM-IV criteria of major depression or CES-D-20> = 16 | - | - | No, but adjusted for history of depression |
| ESPRIT study of neuropsychiatric disorders in French elderly; 2015; France [14] | 415 (only women) |
65+ | 12/1 | CES-D-20 MINI (DSM-IV) |
DSM-IV criteria for major depression or CES-D-20> = 16 | - | - | no |
| The French Three City study; 2013; France; [33] | 2307 | 65+ | 2, 4, 7, and 10 years | CES-D-20 MINI |
DSM-IV criteria for major depressive episode or CES-D> = 20 | 22.6% | 521 | no |
| The French Three-City study; 2011; France [34] | 3824 | 65+ | 2/2 | CES-D (excluding “my sleep is restless”) MINI (history of major depression) |
CES-D-scores > = 15 (“my sleep was restless”) excluded as item | 16.2% of non-depressed participants | 618 | No |
| AMSTEL; 2000; Netherlands [35] | 1940 | 65–84 | 3/1 | GMS-AGECAT | GMS-AGECAT confidence level > = 3 | 15.9% of non-depressed at baseline | 309 | No |
| AMSTEL; 2006; Netherlands; [36] | 1915 | 65–84 | 3/1 | GMS-AGECAT | GMS-AGECAT confidence level > = 3 | 13.1% of non-depressed and without Generalized Anxiety Disorder at baseline | 250 | No |
| German Study on Ageing, Cognition, Dementia in Primary Care Patients (AgeCoDe Study); 2013; Germany [2] | 2512 | 75-99/ 79.6 |
1.5/2 | GDS-15 | GDS-15 score > = 6 | 42,7. (38.0–47.9) per 1000 person years |
92 | No |
| LEILA 75+.; 2012; Germany [37] | 1265 | 75–99; 81.5 | 1.5/5 | CES-D-20 | CES-D-20-score > = 23 points | 34 (31–37) per 1000 person years | 92 | No |
| Evergreen Project; 2003; Finland [38] | 384 | 65+ | 8/1 | RBDI | RBDI-score > = 5 | 17% of non-depressed participants | 66 | No |
| GERDA Project; 2014; Finland [39] | 115 | 85+ | 5/1 | DSM-IV GDS-15 MADRS-30 |
Diagnosis of depression after joint evaluation of medical record, questionnaires, and interviews. Including major depressive disorder, dysthymic disorder (…) | 25.5% of non-depressed participants | 40 | No |
| Kungsholmen project 2000; Sweden [40] |
894 | 75+/84.5 | 3/1 | DSM-IV | Depressive syndromes According to DSM-IV | 8/1000 person years | 29 | no |
| English longitudinal study of the Ageing (ELSA); 2008; [41] | 2929 | 65+ | 2/1 | CES-D-8 | CES-D-8-score > = 3 | 16.5% of non-depressed at baseline | 469 | No |
| English Longitudinal Study of the Ageing (ELSA);2007; England [42] | 2814 | 65+ | 2/1 | CES-D-8 | CES-D-8-score > = 3 | 16.5% of non-depressed at baseline | 464 | No |
| Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE); 2019; Several Countries6 [43] | 17067 | 65+ | 2/1 | EURO-D-12 item | EURO-D-12-score > = 4 | 12.3% 6.62/100 person years |
2,862 | No |
| Nihon University Japanese Longitudinal Study of Aging: NUJLSOA; Japan [44] |
3065 | 65+ | 3/1 | CES-D-11 | CES-D-11-score > = 7 | Not given | Not given | No |
| Prospective community-based study of late-life psychiatric morbidity in Kwangju; South Korea [45] |
792 | 65+ | 2/1 | GMS-AGECAT | GMS-AGECAT confidence level > = 3 | 12.9% | 102 | No |
ARR = Adjusted Risk Ratio BMI = Body Mass Index; BR = Binomial Regression; CPHR = Cox proportional hazard regression; CPHA = Cox Proportional Hazard Analysis; CRM = Cox Regression Model; DSM = Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders; GDS = Geriatric Depression Scale; GLM: Generalized Linear Model; GLMLL: Generalized Linear Model with Logistic Link; GMSS = Geriatric Mental State Schedule; GMS-AGECAT = Automated Geriatric Examination for Computer Assisted Taxonomy- Geriatric Mental State Schedule; HAM-D = Hamilton Depression Rating Scale; HR = Hazard Ratio; IRR = Incident Risk Ratio; JAGES = Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study; Leila 75+ = Leipzig Longitudinal Study of the Ageing; LR = Logistic regression; MADRS = Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Scale; MCM = Multivariate Cox Model; MINI = Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview; MBLR = Multivariate Binary logistic regression; MLM = Mixed logistic model; MLR: Multiple logistic regression/Multivariate Logistic Regression; OR = Odds Ratio; RBDI = Finish modified version of Beck´s 13-item depression scale; RR = Relative Risk; SLR = Stepwise logistic regression; SMOLR = Stepwise Multiple Ordinal Logistic Regression; SCID = Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV; SLEs = Stressful life events.
1Structured Interview for Diagnosis of Dementia of Alzheimer Type, Multi-infarct Dementia and Dementia of Other Etiology.
2Activities of Daily Living
3Instrumental Activities of Daily Living by Lawton and Brody, 1969
4Social network index according to Wenger and Tucker 2002
5number of participants included into the analysis
6Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Austria, Germany, Belgium, France, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Spain, Italy, Israel.