Fig. 6. Effect of incomplete hypothesis space and of model interpolation on Bayesian model selection.
a Confusion matrix reporting the posterior distribution when excluding the true model (hatched) from the set of tested model hypotheses (n = 1 repetition). Note that posterior probability is non-uniformly distributed and concentrated at plausibly similar models even when the true model is not part of the hypothesis space. b Posterior distributions for connectome models interpolated between ER-ESN and EXP-LSM (n = 1 repetition per bar). Inset: Space constant dEXP acts as interpolation parameter between ER-ESN (dEXP = 0) and EXP-LSM (dEXP = 1). Note that the transition between the two models is captured by the estimated model posterior, with an intermediate (non-dominant) confusion with the FEVER model.