Table 4.
Multivariable clinical prediction models for nonrecovery outcomes in older adults with back pain (Back Complaints in the Elders cohort, n = 428, persistent back pain; n = 420, persistent disability; n = 433, perceived nonrecovery, complete case analysis).
| Predictors | Coefficient (SE) | R2 | Optimism-adjusted R2 | AUC (95% CI) | Optimism-adjusted AUC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persistent back pain model* | |||||
| Constant | −5.02 (1.22) | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.78 (0.74-0.83) | 0.76 |
| Age (y) | 0.03 (0.02) | ||||
| Chronic duration (>3 mo) | 0.84 (0.27) | ||||
| Average back pain intensity in the past wk (NRS 0-10) + spline | 0.38 (0.15) | ||||
| −0.22 (0.14) | |||||
| Disability (RMDQ 0-24) | 0.07 (0.02) | ||||
| Recent episode of back pain (previous 6 mo) | 0.45 (0.28) | ||||
| Musculoskeletal comorbidity | 0.42 (0.28) | ||||
| Pain during spinal rotation | 0.57 (0.24) | ||||
| Patients' expectation to recover | −0.64 (0.25) | ||||
| Persistent disability model† | |||||
| Constant | −6.21 (1.32) | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.85 (0.82-0.89) | 0.84 |
| Age (y) | 0.03 (0.02) | ||||
| Chronic duration (>3 mo) | 0.68 (0.30) | ||||
| Disability (RMDQ 0-24) + spline | 0.40 (0.07) | ||||
| −0.25 (0.07) | |||||
| Musculoskeletal comorbidity | 0.57 (0.30) | ||||
| Spinal morning stiffness (>30 min) | 0.72 (0.35) | ||||
| Pain during spinal rotation | 0.62 (0.27) | ||||
| Patients' expectation to recover | −1.00 (0.27) | ||||
| Depressive symptomatology (CES-D 0-60) + spline | 0.14 (0.06) | ||||
| −0.12 (0.06) | |||||
| Perceived nonrecovery model‡ | |||||
| Constant | −4.44 (1.21) | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.80 (0.76-0.84) | 0.78 |
| Age (y) | 0.03 (0.02) | ||||
| Chronic duration (>3 mo) | 0.52 (0.27) | ||||
| Average back pain intensity in the past wk (NRS 0-10) + spline | 0.24 (0.14) | ||||
| −0.14 (0.14) | |||||
| Disability (RMDQ 0-24)) + spline | 0.17 (0.06) | ||||
| −0.11 (0.06) | |||||
| Recent episode of back pain (previous 6 mo) | 1.16 (0.29) | ||||
| Pain during spinal rotation | 0.54 (0.25) | ||||
| Patients' expectation to recover | −1.20 (0.25) |
Penalized persistent back pain model (with adjusted coefficients; slope 0.90) is − 4.54 + 0.03 × age + 0.76 × chronic duration + 0.34 × back pain intensity − 0.20 × back pain intensity spline + 0.06 × disability + 0.40 × recent episode + 0.38 × musculoskeletal comorbidity + 0.51 × pain during spinal rotation − 0.58 × patients' expectation to recover.
Penalized persistent disability model (with adjusted coefficients; slope 0.90) is − 5.60 + 0.03 × age + 0.61 × chronic duration + 0.36 × disability − 0.23 × disability spline + 0.65 × spinal morning stiffness + 0.51 × musculoskeletal comorbidity + 0.56 × pain during spinal rotation + 0.13 × depressive symptomatology − 0.11 × depressive symptomatology spline − 0.91 × patients' expectation to recover.
Penalized perceived nonrecovery model (with adjusted coefficients; slope 0.90) is − 4.01 + 0.02 × age + 0.47 × chronic duration + 0.22 × back pain intensity − 0.12 × back pain intensity spline + 0.16 × disability − 0.10 × disability spline + 1.05 × recent episode + 0.49 × pain during spinal rotation − 1.08 × patients' expectation to recover.