Table 2.
COVID-19 case numbers: Coefficient estimates for the SAR, SEM and SAC models discussed in Section 2.2.
| Variable | SAR |
SEM |
SAC |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coeff. | (Std. Err.) | Coeff. | (Std. Err.) | Coeff. | (Std. Err.) | |
| Early cases | 6.78** | (1.24) | 6.58** | (1.23) | 6.50** | (1.22) |
| Economy | ||||||
| HH income | 0.22 | (0.17) | 0.14 | (0.17) | 0.18 | (0.17) |
| Unempl. rate | −22.35 | (22.91) | −30.24 | (22.84) | −28.42 | (22.81) |
| Pers. services | −2.96 | (7.90) | −6.65 | (7.96) | −6.44 | (8.00) |
| Pers. nursing | 2.97* | (1.45) | 2.91* | (1.43) | 3.03* | (1.42) |
| Academics | 28.77** | (9.14) | 27.72** | (9.12) | 28.11** | (9.09) |
| Industry share | −0.27 | (3.95) | 0.37 | (3.88) | 0.06 | (3.87) |
| Service share | 3.85 | (4.17) | 2.31 | (4.07) | 2.40 | (4.05) |
| Tourist beds | −0.67 | (0.56) | −0.57 | (0.56) | −0.64 | (0.56) |
| Old age pov. | 4.12 | (3.78) | 4.81 | (3.74) | 4.49 | (3.74) |
| Demography | ||||||
| Mean age | 94.82† | (54.85) | 101.74† | (53.93) | 106.05* | (53.83) |
| Over 75 | −117.55* | (52.88) | −127.96* | (52.65) | −129.65* | (52.49) |
| Women | 70.64 | (45.65) | 85.73† | (45.36) | 83.25† | (45.24) |
| Health | ||||||
| Heart failure | 15.29 | (24.67) | 10.60 | (24.79) | 10.21 | (24.74) |
| COPD | −21.46 | (20.98) | −13.58 | (21.68) | −14.02 | (21.67) |
| Physicians | −33.73** | (12.92) | −37.47** | (12.83) | −36.45** | (12.81) |
| Hospital beds | −7.82 | (9.50) | −3.69 | (9.31) | −4.28 | (9.32) |
| Pharmacies | 2.98 | (6.33) | 6.46 | (6.48) | 5.09 | (6.58) |
| Infant mortality | −4.36 | (11.06) | −3.57 | (10.84) | −3.25 | (10.80) |
| Life expectancy | 140.42** | (40.79) | 118.54** | (40.92) | 125.50** | (41.20) |
| Need of care | 0.44 | (0.42) | 0.39 | (0.43) | 0.39 | (0.43) |
| Region | ||||||
| Pop. density | 0.34** | (0.07) | 0.36** | (0.07) | 0.37** | (0.07) |
| Car density | −0.42 | (0.61) | −0.35 | (0.60) | −0.37 | (0.60) |
| Commuter balance | 0.52 | (1.69) | 0.37 | (1.70) | 0.30 | (1.71) |
| Share of foreigners | −0.57 | (10.88) | −5.75 | (10.85) | −2.85 | (11.01) |
| Immigr. human. reasons | 8.59 | (21.25) | 8.64 | (20.76) | 8.20 | (20.68) |
| Multi-fam. houses | −2.98 | (3.68) | −1.38 | (3.72) | −1.61 | (3.72) |
| Regions urban. appr. | −13.50 | (63.12) | −49.40 | (66.35) | −50.08 | (66.31) |
| Rural regions | 28.28 | (78.19) | −4.35 | (81.83) | −8.42† | (81.93) |
| Pupils | −36.05 | (19.50) | −39.19* | (18.67) | −35.43† | (18.78) |
| Childcare | −9.04† | (4.84) | −6.69 | (5.03) | −7.65 | (5.10) |
| Interactions (centered) | ||||||
| Childcare × mean age | 3.35** | (1.30) | 2.97* | (1.30) | 3.03* | (1.30) |
| Pupils × mean age | 19.04* | (8.93) | 18.57* | (8.53) | 18.15* | (8.50) |
| Nursing × mean age | 0.57 | (0.47) | 0.42 | (0.47) | 0.47 | (0.47) |
| Constant | −16728.64** | (4347.27) | −15734.84** | (4307.13) | −16324.19** | (4323.41) |
| lambda | −1.04** | (0.33) | −0.69 | (0.49) | ||
| rho | 1.03** | (0.03) | 1.06** | (0.06) | ||
| sigma2 | 121389.73** | (8594.28) | 119734.46** | (8466.83) | 118921.29** | (8417.15) |
| Log likelihood | −2917.81 | −2917.28 | −2916.17 | |||
| LR chi2 (OLS) | 9.51** | 10.56** | 12.78** | |||
| LR chi2 (SAC) | 3.27† | 2.23 | ||||
The significance level symbols are for 10%, for 5%, and for 1%.