Table 1. Relations between actual performance outcome (signed error magnitude), predicted outcome, confidence in predictions and their modulations due to learning across blocks of trials.
| Signed error magnitude | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | SE | CI | t | p |
| Intercept | 4.63 | 9.99 | −14.94–24.20 | 0..46 | 6.427e-01 |
| Predicted Outcome | 523.99 | 29.66 | 465..86–582.12 | 17.67 | 7.438e-70 |
| Block | 29.47 | 8.12 | 13..56–45.37 | 3..63 | 2.832e-04 |
| Confidence | −27.07 | 11.05 | −48.73 – −5.42 | −2..45 | 1.428e-02 |
| Predicted Outcome: Block | −149.70 | 21.90 | −192.62 – −106.78 | −6..84 | 8.145e-12 |
| Predicted Outcome: Confidence | 322.56 | 27.31 | 269.03–376.09 | 11.81 | 3.477e-32 |
| Block: Confidence | −25.52 | 9..15 | −43.46 – −7.58 | −2..79 | 5.297e-03 |
| Predicted Outcome: Block: Confidence | 90.68 | 33.65 | 24.73–156.64 | 2..69 | 7.043e-03 |
| Random effects | Model Parameters | ||||
| Residuals | 54478.69 | N | 40 | ||
| Intercept | 3539.21 | Observations | 9996 | ||
| Confidence | 2813.79 | log-Likelihood | −68816.092 | ||
| Predicted Outcome | 22357.33 | Deviance | 137632.185 | ||
Formula: Signed error magnitude ~Predicted Outcome*Block*Confidence+(Confidence +Predicted Outcome+Block|participant); Note: ‘:” indicates interactions between predictors.