Table 2.
Calibration and validation of US SimSmoke current smoking prevalence predictions against national surveys, by age and gender, 1993–2012.
| Ages | Source | 1993 | 1998 | 2010 | 2012 | Percent Change 1993–1998 | Percent Change 1998–2010 | Percent Change 1998–2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MALE | ||||||||
| 18+ | SimSmoke | 26.7% | 25.2% | 17.9% | 17.3% | −5.8% | −28.8% | −31.2% |
| TUS-CPS | 26.6% | 24.4% | 17.2% | −8.2% | −29.6% | |||
| 95% CI | (26.3%, 27.0%) | (23.9%, 25.0%) | (16.8%, 17.6%) | |||||
| NHIS | 27.7% | 26.4% | 21.5% | 20.5% | −4.7% | −18.6% | −22.3% | |
| 95% CI | (26.6%, 28.8%) | (25.5%, 27.3%) | (20.7%, 22.3%) | (19.6%, 21.4%) | ||||
| 18–24 | SimSmoke | 27.3% | 29.0% | 19.8% | 19.9% | 6.4% | −31.6% | −31.5% |
| TUS-CPS | 27.7% | 30.0% | 19.4% | 8.0% | −35.4% | |||
| 95% CI | (26.7%, 28.7%) | (27.9%, 32.0%) | (18.0%, 20.7%) | |||||
| NHIS | 28.8% | 31.3% | 22.8% | 20.1% | 8.7% | −27.2% | −35.8% | |
| 95% CI | (25.5%, 32.1%) | (28.4%, 34.2%) | (19.9%, 25.7%) | (17.1%, 23.1%) | ||||
| 25–44 | SimSmoke | 30.7% | 28.1% | 20.2% | 19.6% | −8.3% | −28.1% | −30.2% |
| TUS-CPS | 30.8% | 28.4% | 19.6% | −7.7% | −30.9% | |||
| 95% CI | (30.3%, 31.3%) | (27.5%, 29.4%) | (19.0%, 20.3%) | |||||
| NHIS | 31.1% | 29.4% | 24.3% | 25.4% | −5.5% | −17.3% | −13.6% | |
| 95% CI | (29.5%, 32.7%) | (28.1%, 30.7%) | (22.8%, 25.8%) | (23.8%, 27.1%) | ||||
| 45–64 | SimSmoke | 27.0% | 26.0% | 19.1% | 18.2% | −3.9% | −26.3% | −29.9% |
| TUS-CPS | 27.1% | 25.1% | 18.7% | −7.3% | −25.6% | |||
| 95% CI | (26.5%, 27.7%) | (24.1%, 26.2%) | (18.1%, 19.3%) | |||||
| NHIS | 29.2% | 27.7% | 23.2% | 20.2% | −5.1% | −16.2% | −27.1% | |
| 95% CI | (27.2%, 31.2%) | (26.1%, 29.3%) | (21.6%, 24.8%) | (18.8%, 21.6%) | ||||
| 65+ | SimSmoke | 13.6% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | −14.7% | −26.8% | −27.6% |
| TUS-CPS | 13.4% | 10.7% | 8.6% | −20.2% | −20.1% | |||
| 95% CI | (12.8%, 14.0%) | (9.7%, 11.7%) | (7.9%, 9.2%) | |||||
| NHIS | 13.5% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.6% | −23.0% | −6.7% | 1.9% | |
| 95% CI | (11.3%, 15.7%) | (9.1%, 11.7%) | (8.3%, 11.1%) | (9.3%, 12.0%) | ||||
| FEMALE | ||||||||
| 18+ | SimSmoke | 22.2% | 20.3% | 14.0% | 13.5% | −8.6% | −30.8% | −33.3% |
| TUS-CPS | 22.3% | 20.0% | 13.7% | −10.5% | −31.3% | |||
| 95% CI | (22.1%, 22.6%) | (19.5%, 20.4%) | (13.4%, 14.0%) | |||||
| NHIS | 22.5% | 22.0% | 17.3% | 15.8% | −2.2% | −21.4% | −28.2% | |
| 95% CI | (21.6%, 23.4%) | (21.2%, 22.8%) | (16.5%, 18.1%) | (15.1%, 16.5%) | ||||
| 18–24 | SimSmoke | 23.7% | 23.9% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 1.1% | −34.4% | −34.4% |
| TUS-CPS | 23.9% | 24.7% | 14.7% | 3.4% | −40.3% | |||
| 95% CI | (23.0%, 24.7%) | (23.0%, 26.5%) | (13.7%, 15.8%) | |||||
| NHIS | 22.9% | 24.5% | 17.4% | 14.5% | 7.0% | −29.0% | −40.8% | |
| 95% CI | (20.2%, 25.6%) | (21.9%, 27.1%) | (15.0%, 19.8%) | (12.3%, 16.7%) | ||||
| 25–44 | SimSmoke | 26.3% | 23.4% | 16.2% | 15.7% | −10.9% | −31.0% | −33.1% |
| TUS-CPS | 26.4% | 23.8% | 15.7% | −9.9% | −34.2% | |||
| 95% CI | (26.0%, 26.8%) | (23.0%, 24.6%) | (15.1%, 16.2%) | |||||
| NHIS | 27.3% | 25.6% | 19.8% | 17.8% | −6.2% | −22.7% | −30.5% | |
| 95% CI | (26%, 28.6%) | (24.4%, 26.8%) | (18.4%, 21.2%) | (16.6%, 19.0%) | ||||
| 45–64 | SimSmoke | 23.1% | 21.5% | 15.3% | 14.4% | −6.7% | −28.8% | −33.1% |
| TUS-CPS | 23.2% | 20.5% | 15.9% | −11.9% | −22.2% | |||
| 95% CI | (22.7%, 23.7%) | (19.6%, 21.3%) | (15.4%, 16.4%) | |||||
| NHIS | 23.0% | 22.5% | 19.1% | 18.9% | −2.2% | −15.1% | −16.0% | |
| 95% CI | (21.3%, 24.7%) | (21.2%, 23.8%) | (17.9%, 20.3%) | (17.6%, 20.2%) | ||||
| 65+ | SimSmoke | 11.3% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | −13.5% | −27.0% | −26.9% |
| TUS-CPS | 11.4% | 9.6% | 6.8% | −16.3% | −28.6% | |||
| 95% CI | (11.0%, 11.9%) | (8.8%, 10.3%) | (6.4%, 7.3%) | |||||
| NHIS | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | −17.0% | −33.0% | |
| 95% CI | (9.2%, 11.8%) | (10%, 12.4%) | (8.1%, 10.5%) | (6.6%, 8.5%) | ||||
Notes: 1. TUS-CPS = Tobacco Use Supplement of Current Population Survey that measures those who have smoked 100 cigarettes or more in their lifetime and currently smoke daily or someday; 2. NHIS = National Health Interview Survey that measures those who have smoked 100 cigarettes or more in their lifetime and now smoke every day or some days; 3. 95% CI refers to the 95% confidence interval for the prevalence.