Table 1.

Poisson models of emergency COPD admissions in 2020 and the corresponding 5-year averages (2015-2019).

	Scotland		Wales		Pooled estimates
	IRR (95% CI)	p value	IRR (95% CI)	p value	IRR (95% CI)	p value
Pre-lockdown intercept in 2020 compared to 5-year average	0.83 (0.75, 0.91)	< 0.001	0.59 (0.51, 0.67)	< 0.001	0.74 (0.68, 0.80)	< 0.001
Slope in weeks 1–12
5-year average	0.97 (0.97, 0.98)	< 0.001	0.97 (0.96, 0.98)	< 0.001	0.97 (0.97, 0.98)	< 0.001
2020	0.97 (0.96, 0.98)	< 0.001	0.94 (0.92, 0.95)	< 0.001	0.96 (0.95, 0.97)	< 0.001
2020 relative to 5-year average	1.00 (0.98, 1.01)	0.686	0.96 (0.95, 0.98)	< 0.001	0.99 (0.98, 1.00)	0.006
Change in level at week 13
5-year average	1.08 (1.00, 1.18)	0.056	1.02 (0.92, 1.15)	0.666	1.06 (0.99, 1.13)	0.072
2020	0.52 (0.47, 0.58)	< 0.001	0.62 (0.53, 0.72)	< 0.001	0.55 (0.50, 0.60)	< 0.001
2020 relative to 5-year average	0.48 (0.42, 0.55)	< 0.001	0.60 (0.50, 0.73)	< 0.001	0.52 (0.46, 0.58)	< 0.001
Change in slope after week 13
5-year average	1.01 (1.00, 1.02)	0.023	1.01 (1.00, 1.03)	0.034	1.01 (1.00, 1.02)	0.002
2020	1.05 (1.04, 1.07)	< 0.001	1.07 (1.05, 1.09)	< 0.001	1.06 (1.05, 1.07)	< 0.001
2020 relative to 5-year average	1.04 (1.03, 1.06)	< 0.001	1.06 (1.03, 1.08)	< 0.001	1.05 (1.03, 1.06)	< 0.001