Table 2.

Poisson models of deaths with COPD as the underlying cause in 2020 and the corresponding 5-year averages (2015–2019).

	Scotland		Wales		Pooled estimates
	IRR (95% CI)	p value	IRR (95% CI)	p value	IRR (95% CI)	p value
Pre-lockdown intercept in 2020 compared to 5-year average	0.87 (0.70, 1.08)	0.206	0.85 (0.66, 1.11)	0.234	0.86 (0.73, 1.02)	0.083
Slope in weeks 1–12
5-year average	0.96 (0.94, 0.98)	< 0.001	0.98 (0.96, 1.00)	0.063	0.97 (0.95, 0.98)	< 0.001
2020	0.98 (0.96, 1.00)	0.042	0.97 (0.94, 0.99)	0.004	0.97 (0.96, 0.99)	0.001
2020 relative to 5-year average	1.02 (0.99, 1.05)	0.240	0.99 (0.95, 1.02)	0.446	1.00 (0.98, 1.03)	0.673
Change in level at week 13
5-year average	1.02 (0.84, 1.22)	0.869	0.95 (0.75, 1.20)	0.657	0.99 (0.86, 1.14)	0.883
2020	1.09 (0.89, 1.33)	0.417	1.03 (0.81, 1.32)	0.803	1.06 (0.91, 1.24)	0.432
2020 relative to 5-year average	1.07 (0.81, 1.41)	0.627	1.09 (0.78, 1.53)	0.627	1.08 (0.87, 1.33)	0.494
Change in slope after week 13
5-year average	1.02 (1.00, 1.04)	0.084	0.99 (0.97, 1.02)	0.687	1.01 (0.99, 1.03)	0.266
2020	0.99 (0.97, 1.01)	0.411	0.99 (0.96, 1.02)	0.699	0.99 (0.97, 1.01)	0.379
2020 relative to 5-year average	0.97 (0.94, 1.00)	0.078	1.00 (0.96, 1.04)	0.997	0.98 (0.96, 1.01)	0.169