Table 3.

Poisson models of primary care consultations for acute exacerbations of COPD in Wales in 2020 and the corresponding 5-year averages (2015–2019)

	IRR (95% CI)	p value
Pre-lockdown intercept in 2020 compared to 5-year average	0.76 (0.68, 0.86)	< 0.001
Slope in weeks 1–12
5-year average	0.97 (0.96, 0.98)	< 0.001
2020	0.93 (0.92, 0.94)	< 0.001
2020 relative to 5-year average	0.96 (0.95, 0.97)	< 0.001
Change in level at week 13
5-year average	1.05 (0.95, 1.16)	0.322
2020	0.64 (0.56, 0.72)	< 0.001
2020 relative to 5-year average	0.61 (0.52, 0.71)	< 0.001
Change in slope after week 13
5-year average	1.01 (1.00, 1.02)	0.043
2020	1.03 (1.01, 1.04)	< 0.001
2020 relative to 5-year average	1.01 (1.00, 1.03)	0.147