TABLE 6:

Model parameters in the IL1beta example. The second column presents the parameters of the prior distribution, where we use a Gaussian prior in the log₁₀-transformed parameter space with a diagonal covariance matrix. The last four columns present the posterior mean and standard deviation of model parameters estimated using the ST-MCMC with full-fidelity model and the Multifidelity ST-MCMC with three different bridging strategies.

Parameter	Prior		Posterior
		Full-fidelity	ESS-Bridge	IT-Bridge	Tuned IT-Bridge
log10(r1)	−2.00 ± 0.33	−2.48 ± 0.03	−2.47 ± 0.03	−2.47 ± 0.03	−2.47 ± 0.03
log10(r2)	−2.00 ± 0.33	−2.00 ± 0.34	−2.00 ± 0.33	−2.00 ± 0.33	−2.00 ± 0.32
log10(k01)	−3.00 ± 0.33	−3.26 ± 0.03	−3.25 ± 0.04	−3.25 ± 0.03	−3.25 ± 0.03
log10(a10)	−2.00 ± 0.33	−1.31 ± 0.06	−1.31 ± 0.06	−1.30 ± 0.06	−1.31 ± 0.06
log10(k10)	3.00 ± 0.33	3.04 ± 0.34	3.05 ± 0.34	3.06 ± 0.30	3.04 ± 0.31
log10(k12)	−3.00 ± 0.33	−3.08 ± 0.03	−3.08 ± 0.04	−3.08 ± 0.04	−3.08 ± 0.03
log10(k21)	−2.00 ± 0.33	−1.25 ± 0.15	−1.26 ± 0.14	−1.28 ± 0.14	−1.28 ± 0.13
log10(α1)	−3.00 ± 0.33	−3.60 ± 0.15	−3.60 ± 0.16	−3.60 ± 0.16	−3.60 ± 0.16
log10(α2)	0.00 ± 0.33	0.71 ± 0.15	0.70 ± 0.14	0.68 ± 0.13	0.68 ± 0.13
log10(γ)	−4.00 ± 0.33	−4.56 ± 0.05	−4.56 ± 0.05	−4.56 ± 0.05	−4.56 ± 0.05
log10(T0)	4.00 ± 0.33	5.36 ± 0.09	5.36 ± 0.09	5.37 ± 0.08	5.37 ± 0.09