Table 2.
Estimated impact of IMI on number of children reached, coverage in the treated districts, and unvaccinated children in India over 1 year (October 2017 through September 2018)
| (1) Number of additional children reached (thousands) (95% CI) | (2) Percentage point increase in coverage in treated districts (95% CI) | (3) Percentage of unvaccinated children in the treated districts reached through IMI (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BCG | 331 | 3.9 | 31.5 |
| (−282 to 883) | (−3.3 to 10.4) | (−26.8 to 83.9) | |
| HepB0 | 148 | 1.7 | 3.9 |
| (−263 to 521) | (−3.1 to 6.1) | (−6.9 to 13.7) | |
| OPV0 | 136 | 1.6 | 5.2 |
| (−299 to 500) | (−3.5 to 5.9) | (−11.5 to 19.2) | |
| DTP1 | 491 | 5.9 | 35.7 |
| (−100 to 1033) | (−1.2 to 12.5) | (−7.5 to 77.4) | |
| OPV1 | 396 | 4.8 | 33.1 |
| (−221 to 969) | (−2.7 to 11.7) | (−18.5 to 81.2) | |
| DTP2 | 342 | 4.1 | 19.7 |
| (−187 to 832) | (−2.3 to 10.1) | (−10.7 to 47.8) | |
| OPV2 | 287 | 3.5 | 17.2 |
| (−252 to 823) | (−3.0 to 9.9) | (−15.1 to 49.4) | |
| DTP3 | 253 | 3.1 | 10.0 |
| (−274 to 733) | (−3.3 to 8.8) | (−10.9 to 29.0) | |
| OPV3 | 192 | 2.3 | 6.9 |
| (−318 to 670) | (−3.8 to 8.1) | (−11.5 to 24.3) | |
| M1 | 377 | 4.5 | 16.9 |
| (−23 to 771) | (−0.3 to 9.3) | (−1.0 to 34.7) | |
| DTPba | 233 | 2.8 | NA |
| (−474 to 857) | (−5.7 to 10.3) | ||
| M2a | 247 | 3.0 | NA |
| (−372 to 793) | (−4.5 to 9.6) | ||
| OPVba | 79 | 1.0 | NA |
| (−662 to 773) | (−8.0 to 9.3) | ||
| TT1 | 6 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| (−393 to 398) | (−4.6 to 4.7) | (−47.2 to 49.9) | |
| TT2 | −102 | −1.2 | −6.5 |
| (−441 to 215) | (−5.2 to 2.5) | (−27.8 to 13.5) |
Notes: Table shows point estimates and 95% confidence intervals reflecting estimation uncertainty. Column 1 shows the estimated number of incremental doses delivered due to IMI. This result is calculated by generating predictions from regression models, with covariates set to their true values in the full set of IMI districts. Column 2 shows the estimated percentage point change in coverage in IMI districts. This result is calculated dividing the values in column 1 by an estimate of the target population. The target population is estimated using World Bank data on the population size, birth rate, and neonatal mortality rate in 2017, and HMIS data on the percentage of live births in India that occurred in IMI treatment districts. The full birth cohort is used as the target population for BCG, TT1, and TT2; the birth cohort size less the infant mortality rate is used as the target population for other infant vaccines. Column 3 shows the estimated percentage of unreached children in the treated districts who were reached through IMI. This result is generated by dividing the values in column 1 by an estimate of the number of children in the target districts who would have been unvaccinated if IMI had not occurred. The denominator is calculated by multiplying 1 minus the coverage in 2016 (from DHS estimates) by the size of the target population. NA indicates ‘Not Applicable.’
For these vaccines, there are no estimates of coverage in the 2016 DHS survey.