Table 2. Summary of projections for England, 15 December 2020 to 30 June 2021.

Median and 95% credible intervals are indicated.

	Moderate (October 2020)	High (November 2020) with schools open	High with schools closed	Very high (March 2020)
No vaccination
Peak ICU (relative to 1st wave)	274% (256–292%)	162% (151–172%)	130% (122–136%)	119% (112–124%)
Peak ICU bed requirement	9,980 (9,330–10,600)	5,880 (5,490–6,280)	4,720 (4,450–4,960)	4,310 (4,070–4,530)
Peak deaths	3,960 (3,730–4,200)	2,050 (1,920–2,160)	1,500 (1,440–1,570)	1,830 (1,670–2,000)
Total admissions	635,000 (604,000–659,000)	454,000 (432,000–472,000)	448,000 (425,000–466,000)	450,000 (425,000–472,000)
Total deaths	216,000 (205,000–227,000)	146,000 (138,000–152,000)	147,000 (139,000–155,000)	149,000 (140,000–157,000)
200,000 vaccinations per week
Peak ICU (relative to 1st wave)	269% (252–287%)	160% (149–170%)	130% (122–136%)	118% (112–124%)
Peak ICU bed requirement	9,790 (9,150–10,400)	5,810 (5,430–6,200)	4,710 (4,450–4,950)	4,310 (4,070–4,520)
Peak deaths	3,700 (3,500–3,920)	1,930 (1,820–2,040)	1,490 (1,430–1,550)	1,320 (1,280–1,380)
Total admissions	610,000 (580,000–634,000)	438,000 (416,000–454,000)	415,000 (394,000–430,000)	394,000 (373,000–413,000)
Total deaths	202,000 (192,000–213,000)	137,000 (130,000–143,000)	129,000 (123,000–135,000)	119,000 (112,000–125,000)
2 million vaccinations per week
Peak ICU (relative to 1st wave)	236% (221–252%)	149% (139–158%)	128% (121–134%)	118% (111–124%)
Peak ICU bed requirement	8,590 (8,050–9,170)	5,400 (5,070–5,760)	4,650 (4,390–4,880)	4,290 (4,060–4,500)
Peak deaths	2,470 (2,330–2,610)	1,510 (1,450–1,580)	1,390 (1,340–1,450)	1,290 (1,250–1,340)
Total admissions	483,000 (459,000–502,000)	353,000 (337,000–366,000)	277,000 (265,000–287,000)	190,000 (182,000–197,000)
Total deaths	140,000 (133,000–146,000)	98,900 (94,600–103,000)	81,000 (77,600–84,200)	58,200 (56,100–60,300)