Table 3.
Multinomial multi-level regression for alcohol consumption categories (n = 106 180)
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Exposure | RRR (95% CI) | RRR (95% CI) | RRR (95% CI) | RRR (95% CI) |
| (a) Life-time abstainer | Age (centered) | 1.048*** (1.02, 1.07) | 1.043*** (1.02, 1.07) | 1.050*** (1.03, 1.07) | 0.960 (0.84, 1.10) |
| Age2 | 1.001*** (1.00, 1.00) | 1.001*** (1.00, 1.00) | 1.001*** (1.00, 1.00) | 1.006** (1.00, 1.01) | |
| Constant | 4.460*** (2.38, 8.33) | 0.536 (0.20, 1.44) | 0.678 (0.25, 1.86) | 62.554** (3.201221.54) | |
| HDI | – | – | 0.910*** (0.86, 0.96) | – | |
| HDI × age | 1.001 (1.00, 1.00) | ||||
| HDI × age2 | 1.000 (1.00, 1.00) | ||||
| Prices (log) | – | 0.172*** (0.06, 0.49) | |||
| Prices × age | 1.033 (0.98, 1.09) | ||||
| Prices × age2 | 0.998* (1.00, 1.00) | ||||
| (b) Current abstainer | Age (centered) | 1.071*** (1.06, 1.08) | 1.062*** (1.02, 1.07) | 1.064*** (1.05, 1.08) | 1.109 (0.98, 1.26) |
| Age2 | 1.001 (1.00, 1.00) | 1.000 (1.00, 1.00) | 1.000 (0.99, 1.00) | 0.998 (0.99, 1.00) | |
| Constant | 3.92*** (2.37, 6.46) | 1.17 (0.59, 2.32) | 1.316 (0.66, 2.64) | 61.279* (2.04, 1839.59) | |
| HDI | – | – | 0.922* (0.86, 0.99) | – | |
| HDI × age | 0.998 (1.00, 1.00) | ||||
| HDI × age2 | 1.000 (1.00, 1.00) | ||||
| Prices (log) | – | 0.229* (0.06, 0.82) | |||
| Prices × age | 0.984 (0.94, 1.03) | ||||
| Prices × age2 | 1.001 (1.00, 1.00) | ||||
| (c) Occasional drinker | Age (centered) | 1.029*** (1.01, 1.04) | 1.035*** (1.02, 1.05) | 1.033*** (1.02, 1.05) | 1.017 (0.92, 1.12) |
| Age2 | 1.001*** (1.00, 1.00) | 1.001*** (1.00, 1.00) | 1.001*** (0.99, 1.00) | 1.002 (1.00, 1.01) | |
| Constant | 2.68*** (1.74, 4.12) | 1.517 (0.85, 2.72) | 1.554 (0.82, 2.94) | 3.468 (0.60, 20.18) | |
| HDI | – | – | 0.983 (0.93, 1.04) | – | |
| HDI × age | 1.000 (1.00, 1.00) | ||||
| HDI × age2 | 1.000 (1.00, 1.00) | ||||
| Prices (log) | – | 0.711 (0.37, 1.37) | |||
| Prices × age | 1.006 (0.97, 1.04) | ||||
| Prices × age2 | 0.999 (1.00, 1.00) | ||||
| (d) Moderate drinker | Age (centered) | 5.403*** (3.88, 7.53) | 1.043*** (1.03 – 1.05) | 1.039*** (1.03, 1.05) | 1.039 (0.96, 1.13) |
| Age2 | 5.403*** (3.88, 7.53) | 1.001*** (1.00, 1.00) | 1.000 (0.99, 1.00) | 1.001 (1.00, 1.00) | |
| Constant | 5.40*** (3.88, 7.53) | 9.51*** (6.13, 14.74) | 8.416*** (5.25, 13.48) | 33.812*** (8.11141.03) | |
| HDI | – | – | 1.023 (1.00, 1.05) | – | |
| HDI × age | 1.000 (1.00, 1.00) | ||||
| HDI × age2 | 1.000 (1.00, 1.00) | ||||
| Prices (log) | – | 0.608 (0.35, 1.05) | |||
| Prices × age | 1.001 (0.97, 1.03) | ||||
| Prices × age2 | 1.000 (1.00, 1.00) | ||||
| Individual-level covariates | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Variance partitioning: | |||||
| Total variance | 3.9863 (100%) | 4.0841 (100%) | 4.0813 (100%) | 3.9999 (100%) | |
| Predicted drinking categories | 0.1139 (2.86%) | 0.1631 (3.99%) | 0.1953 (4.79%) | 0.1989 (4.97%) | |
| Individual-level residual | π2 /3 = 3.28 (82.28%) | π2 /3 = 3.28 (80.31%) | π2 /3 = 3.28 (80.37%) | π2 /3 = 3.28 (82.00%) | |
| Random country intercept | 0.5924 (14.86%) | 0.641 (15.70%) | 0.6055 (14.85%) | 0.5196 (13.03%) | |
| Random age slope | 0.0338 | 0.0308 | 0.0302 | 0.0304 | |
| Explained variance | – | – | 0.07% | 2.06% | |
| Likelihood-ratio test for random slopes | P-value < 0.001 | P-value < 0.001 | P-value < 0.001 | P-value < 0.001 | |
RRR = relative risk ratio; CI = confidence interval. Reference category is heavy drinker. Full results for covariates are presented in Supporting information, Tables S3, S4 and S5. The random slope for age2 was dropped across models (likelihood ratio P-value > 0.05). Total variance was calculated as random country intercept, plus predicted drinking categories variance, plus residuals variance following a logistic distribution of π2/3. Explained variance was calculated using the total variance from model 2 as the denominator.
*
P < 0.05;
**
P < 0.01;
***
P < 0.001.