Table 2.
Time-to-event analysis (marginal risk set model) predicting implementation of international travel restrictions
| Model | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOF Globalization Index | 1.08 (0.0739) | 1.17† (0.0958) | 1.76** (0.363) | 1.80* (0.535) |
| Neighbor restriction adoption | 1.30* (0.141) | 1.43*** (0.146) | 1.45*** (0.158) | |
| Neighbor COVID-19 case (7-day total, log) | 1.09** (0.0312) | 1.15*** (0.0429) | 1.15*** (0.0438) | |
| Domestic COVID-19 case (7-day total, log) | 1.02 (0.0426) | 1.02 (0.0470) | 1.02 (0.0493) | |
| Less restrictive travel policy adopted | 3.28*** (0.577) | 3.11*** (0.582) | 3.14*** (0.601) | |
| Weekends | 0.49* (0.172) | 0.39** (0.133) | 0.39** (0.134) | |
| Government Effectiveness (WGI) | 0.83 (0.241) | 0.83 (0.245) | ||
| Electoral democracy index | 1.05 (0.109) | 1.04 (0.111) | ||
| GDP per capita (log) | 1.10 (0.193) | 1.08 (0.196) | ||
| Unemployment (%) | 1.04** (0.0152) | 1.04** (0.0154) | ||
| GINI index | 0.99 (0.0104) | 0.99 (0.0106) | ||
| Hospital beds (per 1 k people) | 1.10* (0.0399) | 1.09* (0.0403) | ||
| Population ages 65+ (%) | 0.93** (0.0216) | 0.94** (0.0219) | ||
| Urban population (%) | 1.00 (0.00470) | 1.00 (0.00490) | ||
| Population density (log) | 0.99 (0.0556) | 0.99 (0.0563) | ||
| MERS or SARS experience | 0.78 (0.269) | 0.78 (0.270) | ||
| Continent | ||||
| Africa | 0.94 (0.305) | 0.95 (0.316) | ||
| Asia | 1.36 (0.407) | 1.38 (0.421) | ||
| Central America | 0.52 (0.235) | 0.54 (0.243) | ||
| Europe | (ref.) | (ref.) | ||
| North America | 1.00 (0.481) | 0.99 (0.482) | ||
| Oceania | 2.32** (0.737) | 2.27* (0.726) | ||
| South America | 1.35 (0.448) | 1.40 (0.462) | ||
| KOF*Neighbor restriction adoption | 0.93 (0.0720) | |||
| KOF*Neighbor COVID-19 case (7-day total, log) | 1.02 (0.0312) | |||
| Num. obs. | 55,163 | 45,484 | 35,418 | 35,418 |
| Num. countries | 173 | 158 | 121 | 121 |
| Num. failures | 655 | 594 | 455 | 455 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.001 | 0.037 | 0.068 | 0.068 |
| Log likelihood | − 2140.460 | − 1813.963 | − 1227.150 | − 1226.585 |
Note: Hazard ratios. Standard errors (clustered at country level) in parentheses. † p < .10; * p < .05; ** p < .01; *** p < .001