Table 1.

Model parameters in standard of care

Type of parameter	Parameter		Probabilitya	Source	Lowb	Highb
Location of first encounter	Inpatient		.20	[13]	.10	.30
	Outpatient		.80		.90	.70
Volume of ascites	Inpatient	Mild	.20	[15]	.30	.10
		Moderate	.60		.60	.60
		Large	.20		.10	.30
	Outpatient	Mild	.40		.50	.30
		Moderate	.50		.50	.50
		Large	.10		.00	.20
Response to therapy	Mild	Ascites resolves	.90	[9, 14–16]	1.00	.80
		Partially improves	.09		.00	.09
		No response	.01		.00	.11
	Moderate	Ascites resolves	.50		.60	.40
		Partially improves	.42		.40	.42
		No response	.08		.00	.18
	Large	Ascites resolves	.20		.30	.10
		Partially improves	.60		.60	.60
		No response	.20		.10	.30
Type of treatment complication	Ascites resolves	No complication	.80	[3, 17–19]	.90	.70
		Minor complication	.15		.10	.15
		Major complication	.05		.00	.15
	Partially improves	No complication	.40		.50	.30
		Minor complication	.30		.30	.30
		Major complication	.30		.20	.40
	No response	No complication	.10		.20	.00
		Minor complication	.40		.40	.40
		Major complication	.50		.40	.60
Subsequent care encountersc	No complication	0, 1, 2 visits	.20, .60, .20	[1–5, 11, 13, 20–23]	.30, .60, .10	.10, .60, .30
		0, 2, 6 LVPs	.80, .15, .05		.90, .10, .00	.70, .15, .15
		0, 1, 2 admits	.90, .08, .02		1.00, .00, .00	.80, .08, .12
	Minor complication	0, 1, 2 visits	.10, .50, .40		.20, .50, .30	.00, .50, .50
		0, 2, 6 LVPs	.60, .30, .10		.70, .30, .00	.50, .30, .20
		0, 1, 2 admits	.80, .15, .05		.90, .10, .00	.70, .15, .15
	Major complication	0, 1, 2 visits	.10, .40, .50		.20, .40, .40	.00, .40, .60
		0, 2, 6 LVPs	.30, .40, .30		.40, .40, .20	.20, .40, .40
		0, 1, 2 admits	0, .50, .50		0, .60, .40	0, .40, .60

^aProbability of each patient experiencing this event within a 6-month window of the first encounter

^b “Low” sensitivity analysis is shifted 10% towards a less expensive outcome. “High” sensitivity analysis is shifted 10% towards a more expensive outcome

^c3 probabilities on each row