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. 2021 May 20;12:2991. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23234-5

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Fig. 7 — Dante’s 90% empirical coverages for short-term targets, broken down by geographic scales. b Empirical coverages by target averaged over all seasons, geographic units within scale, and stages of flu season. a Empirical coverages broken out by stages of flu season. The “Around Peak” stage is defined as the peak week, plus/minus 2 weeks inclusively. Generally, empirical coverages degrade as the forecast window increases, as geographic scales coarsen, and as we get earlier in the flu season. The disagreement between empirical and nominal coverage for Dante represents an opportunity for iteration and improvement.