. 2021 May 25;41(4):523–540. doi: 10.1007/s10669-021-09815-1

Table 4.

Comparison of strategic risks over the mid to long term

Steps	Action	Methods and people involved	Output(s)
Key drivers and megatrends characterisation	Define broad drivers of change guiding strategic thinking about EPAL’s business performance over a 30-year period	PESTLE analysis to identify key drivers of change (including megatrends); informed by literature review and validated through expert elicitation (via workshop with EPAL’s technical experts/managers)	List of relevant key drivers and megatrends
Construction of future scenarios	Develop a consistent mix of drivers that define an alternative but plausible set of scenarios	Computer-aided cross-consistency analysis; synthesis of results to select scenarios	Four alternative scenarios, including narratives
Side by side risks (evolution) comparison	Stress-test the utility’s baseline strategic risks and assess the implications for achieving good strategic outcomes	Workshop involving risk managers and experts from different departments related to each of the strategic risks Re-evaluation of the likelihood and consequences associated with each strategic risk, against the different scenarios	Heat maps, showing comparative change in (evolution of) each strategic risk against a scenario

Steps

Action

Methods and people involved

Output(s)

Key drivers and megatrends characterisation

Define broad drivers of change guiding strategic thinking about EPAL’s business performance over a 30-year period

PESTLE analysis to identify key drivers of change (including megatrends); informed by literature review and validated through expert elicitation (via workshop with EPAL’s technical experts/managers)

List of relevant key drivers and megatrends

Construction of future scenarios

Develop a consistent mix of drivers that define an alternative but plausible set of scenarios

Computer-aided cross-consistency analysis; synthesis of results to select scenarios

Four alternative scenarios, including narratives

Side by side risks (evolution) comparison

Stress-test the utility’s baseline strategic risks and assess the implications for achieving good strategic outcomes

Workshop involving risk managers and experts from different departments related to each of the strategic risks

Re-evaluation of the likelihood and consequences associated with each strategic risk, against the different scenarios

Heat maps, showing comparative change in (evolution of) each strategic risk against a scenario